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Credit Crunch in Germany?

Author

Listed:
  • Nehls, Hiltrud
  • Schmidt, Torsten

Abstract

This paper evaluates whether the Germany economy is currently affected by a credit crunch,i.e.a supply-side restriction of loans that is not in line with market interest rates and profitability of investment projects.With help of a disequilibrium-model,we calculate a credit supply and a demand-function.We compare estimated demand with estimated supply,finding a considerable ex- cess-demand particularly in the second half of 2002.The main reason for this restriction is the drop in earnings in the banking sector.Applying the model to Großbanken (big banks)and other credit institutions separately,shows that the situation in the former is more severe than in the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Nehls, Hiltrud & Schmidt, Torsten, 2003. "Credit Crunch in Germany?," RWI Discussion Papers 6, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwidps:6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sealey, C W, Jr, 1979. "Credit Rationing in the Commercial Loan Market: Estimates of a Structural Model under Conditions of Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 689-702, June.
    2. Wei Ding & Domac, Ilker & Ferri, Giovanni, 1998. "Is there a credit crunch in East Asia?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1959, The World Bank.
    3. Kugler, Peter, 1987. "Credit rationing and the adjustment of the loan rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 505-525.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Nanjo, Takashi, 2002. "Developments in Land Prices and Bank Lending in Interwar Japan: Effects of the Real Estate Finance Problem on the Banking Industry," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(3), pages 117-142, October.
    6. Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Garcia, Rene, 1977. "Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1187-1204, July.
    7. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    8. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Claessens, Stijn & Sakho, Yaye Seynabou, 2013. "Assessing firms'financing constraints in Brazil," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6624, The World Bank.
    2. Ramirez, Francisco A., 2012. "Crédito Al Sector Privado En República Dominicana (1997-2011): ¿Existe Evidencia De Racionamiento Del Crédito?
      [Private Sector Loans in the Dominican Republic (1997-2011):Is There Evidence of credi
      ," MPRA Paper 68333, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Haunschild, Ljuba, 2004. "Leasing in mittelständischen Unternehmen: Ergebnisse einer schriftlichen Befragung," Leasing - Wissenschaft & Praxis, Universität zu Köln, Forschungsinstitut für Leasing, vol. 2(3), pages 3-98.
    4. Nada Oulidi & Laurence Allain, 2009. "Credit Market in Morocco; A Disequilibrium Approach," IMF Working Papers 09/53, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mirna Dumičić & Igor Ljubaj, 2017. "Delayed Credit Recovery in Croatia:Supply or Demand Driven?," Working Papers 45, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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