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Credit cycles: Evidence based on a non linear model for developed countries

  • Rebeca Anguren Martín

    ()

    (Banco de España)

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    We propose an econometric analysis of the evolution of bank credit to the private sector in order to describe credit cycles and identify phases of particularly low (or negative) credit growth such as those that typically accompany financial or banking crises. We use a sample of twelve developed countries, which improves the reliability of our estimation results and provides a global view of the situation of credit for developed countries. In our preferred specification, the credit cycle is characterized as a three-state Markov-switching model that identifies episodes of credit expansion, intermediate credit growth and subpar growth or credit crisis. This specification identifies six of the countries as having experienced period of credit adjustment after the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007 (Canada, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland and US). By the end of the sample period, credit growth was still impaired in three of these countries (Germany and Spain in 2010:I; and United States in 2009:IV). The analysis also uncovers a systematic cyclical pattern in the bank lending sector of the group of advanced countries considered in our sample, which have experienced five episodes of synchronous restrictions in bank lending: 1974-75, 1980-82, 1991-93, 2001-02 and from 2008 to the end of the sample.

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/11/Fich/dt1113e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2011
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    Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 1113.

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    Length: 41 pages
    Date of creation: May 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1113
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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    1. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1987. "Financial Fragility and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 2318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
    4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
    6. Torsten Schmidt & Hiltrud Nehls, 2003. "Credit Crunch in Germany?," RWI Discussion Papers 0006, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    7. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles and Financial Crises, 1870-2008," NBER Working Papers 15512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    11. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "Why Bank Credit Policies Fluctuate: A Theory and Some Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 399-441, May.
    12. Jose Ceron & Javier Suarez, 2006. "Hot And Cold Housing Markets: International Evidence," Working Papers wp2006_0603, CEMFI.
    13. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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