In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany
The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether a credit crunch occurred in Germany during the recent financial crisis and to analyze the underlying factors. In order to disentangle credit supply and demand we specify a theory-based dynamic disequilibrium model of the German credit market. To estimate this model we use a new approach based on Bayesian Inference suggested by Bauwens and Lubrano (2007). Besides the analysis of the whole banking sector we will apply the model to five groups of banks (big private banks, “Landesbanken”, savings banks, credit cooperatives, regional institutions of credit cooperatives) that were affected differently by the financial crisis. The results suggest that a credit crunch did not occur in Germany during the recent economic crisis as well as during the following recovery starting in 2010. Furthermore, we find that especially those banks that were more affected by the financial crisis through huge impairments restricted their credit supply more than others. Both supply and demand side factors contributed to the stabilization of credit financing. This suggests that the structure of the German banking sector as well as economic policy measures avoided a credit crunch.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Hohenzollernstraße 1-3, 45128 Essen|
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/publikationen/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2010.
"A Micro Data Approach to the Identification of Credit Crunches,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3159, CESifo Group Munich.
- Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2423-2441, June.
- Rottmann, Horst & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2013. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Munich Reprints in Economics 19741, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Wollmershäuser, Timo & Rottmann, Horst, 2010. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Weidener Diskussionspapiere 24, University of Applied Sciences Amberg-Weiden (OTH).
- Borensztein, Eduardo & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2002.
"Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 853-875, May.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in Korea; Evidence From Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 00/25, International Monetary Fund.
- Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E, 2011.
"How Do Business and Financial Cycles Interact?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8396, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Andrew Weiss, 1989.
"Macroeconomic models with equity and credit rationing,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1990. "Macroeconomic Models with Equity and Credit Rationing," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 15-42 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1990. "Macroeconomic Models with Equity and Credit Rationing," NBER Working Papers 3533, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LUBRANO, Michel, 2006.
"Bayesian inference in dynamic disequilibrium models: an application to the Polish credit market,"
CORE Discussion Papers
2006050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Luc Bauwens & Michel Lubrano, 2007. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 469-486.
- BAUWENS, Luc & LUBRANO, Michel, . "Bayesian inference in dynamic disequilibrium models: an application to the Polish credit market," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1918, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Luc, BAUWENS & Michel, LUBRANO, 2006. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models : an Application to the Polish Credit Market," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2006027, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1991.
"The capital crunch: neither a borrower nor a lender be,"
91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-38, August.
- Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1993. "The Capital Crunch: Neither A Borrower Nor A Lender Be," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 243, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Lee, Lung-Fei, 1997. "A smooth likelihood simulator for dynamic disequilibrium models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 257-294, June.
- Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888 Elsevier.
- Sneessens, Henri R., 1985.
"Two alternative stochastic specification and estimation methods for quantity rationing models : A Monte-Carlo comparison,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 111-136.
- SNEESSENS, Henri R., . "Two alternative stochastic specification and estimation methods for quantity rationing models. A Monte-Carlo comparison," CORE Discussion Papers RP 660, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Blaes, Barno, 2011. "Bank-related loan supply factors during the crisis: An analysis based on the German bank lending survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,31, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Burcu Erdogan, 2010. "Kreditklemme in Deutschland: Mythos oder Realität?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(4), pages 27-37.
- Otto Eckstein & Allen Sinai, 1986. "The Mechanisms of the Business Cycle in the Postwar Era," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 39-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Dovern, Jonas & Groll, Dominik & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Droht in Deutschland eine Kreditklemme?," Kiel Discussion Papers 472/473, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-30, November.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Hempell, Hannah Sabine & Kok, Christoffer, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
- Sealey, C W, Jr, 1979. "Credit Rationing in the Commercial Loan Market: Estimates of a Structural Model under Conditions of Disequilibrium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(3), pages 689-702, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
- Kugler, Peter, 1987. "Credit rationing and the adjustment of the loan rate: An empirical investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 505-525.
- Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Laffont, Jean-Jacques & Garcia, Rene, 1977. "Disequilibrium Econometrics for Business Loans," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(5), pages 1187-1204, July.
- Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
- Albert M. Wojnilower, 1980. "The Central Role of Credit Crunches in Recent Financial History," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 277-340.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sabine Weiler)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.