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Excessive credit growth and countercyclical capital buffers in basel III: an empirical evidence from central and east european countries


  • Seidler, Jakub
  • Gersl, Adam


Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer”, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel II by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

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  • Seidler, Jakub & Gersl, Adam, 2012. "Excessive credit growth and countercyclical capital buffers in basel III: an empirical evidence from central and east european countries," MPRA Paper 42541, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42541

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2006. "Credit Cycles, Credit Risk, and Prudential Regulation," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May.
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    3. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
    4. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
    5. Frédéric Boissay & Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez & Tomasz Kozluk, 2006. "Is Lending in Central and Eastern Europe Developing Too Fast?," Chapters,in: Financial Development, Integration and Stability, chapter 14 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Andrea Gerali & Stefano Neri & Luca Sessa & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit and Banking in a DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 107-141, September.
    7. Markus Eller & Michael Frömmel & Nora Srzentic, 2010. "Private Sector Credit in CESEE: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 50-78.
    8. A. Calza & C. Gartner & J. Sousa, 2003. "Modelling the demand for loans to the private sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 107-117.
    9. Edward F. Blackburne III & Mark W. Frank, 2007. "Estimation of nonstationary heterogeneous panels," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(2), pages 197-208, June.
    10. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    11. Kraft, Evan & Jankov, Ljubinko, 2005. "Does speed kill? Lending booms and their consequences in Croatia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 105-121, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Farrell, Greg, 2014. "Countercyclical capital buffers and real-time credit-to-GDP gap estimates: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 55368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniela Marchettini & Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries; Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 15/190, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Saurabh Ghosh, "undated". "Building on the Countercyclical Consensus: An Empirical Test," Working Papers wp08, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    5. Cecilia Dassatti & Alejandro Pena & Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Case of Uruguay," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 251-285, July-Dece.
    6. Irina – Raluca Badea, 2015. "The Role Of Countercyclical Measures In Controlling The Procyclical Behaviour Of Banks," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(43), pages 210-218.
    7. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Working Paper Series 1723, European Central Bank.
    8. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Namibia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/277, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item


    credit growth; financial crisis; countercyclical capital buffer; Basel II;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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