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A Re-assessment of Credit Development in European Transition Economies

  • Zdzienicka, Aleksandra

The aim of the paper is to re-assess the bank credit development in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and to provide new estimates of the credit-to-GDP ratio equilibrium level. Using filtering methods and dynamic panel estimations, our results suggest an “excessive” credit development for most of the studied economies until 2007. After this period, while credit has continued to remain excessive in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, it has decelerated in the other countries. However, while the results suggest a possibility of “credit crunch” in the Baltic republics and, to a less extent, in Croatia, credit deceleration may lead to “soft landing” for the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovenia.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/22692/1/MPRA_paper_22692.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22692.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:22692
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  11. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
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  16. Coudert, V. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "La croissance des crédits dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale est-elle excessive ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 172, pages 39-67.
  17. Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
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