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Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries

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  • Adam Gersl

    () (Joint Vienna Institute/Charles University in Prague)

  • Jakub Seidler

    () (Czech National Bank/Charles University in Prague)

Abstract

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer”, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel III by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
  • Handle: RePEc:prf:journl:v:6:y:2012:i:2:p:91-107
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    Cited by:

    1. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Farrell, Greg, 2014. "Countercyclical capital buffers and real-time credit-to-GDP gap estimates: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 55368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Daniela Marchettini & Rodolfo Maino, 2015. "Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries; Balancing Financial Stability and Development," IMF Working Papers 15/190, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Saurabh Ghosh, "undated". "Building on the Countercyclical Consensus: An Empirical Test," Working Papers wp08, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    5. Cecilia Dassatti & Alejandro Pena & Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Case of Uruguay," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 251-285, July-Dece.
    6. Irina – Raluca Badea, 2015. "The Role Of Countercyclical Measures In Controlling The Procyclical Behaviour Of Banks," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(43), pages 210-218.
    7. Detken, Carsten & Alessi, Lucia, 2014. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Working Paper Series 1723, European Central Bank.
    8. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Namibia; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 15/277, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth; financial crisis; countercyclical capital buffer; Basel III;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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