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Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members

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  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    (National Bank of Poland, Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we analyse the potential for lending booms in three biggest new EU member states (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) during the process of Euro adoption. Experience of old members (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) as well as econometric evidence speak in favour of strong increases in credit in Hungary and Poland and against such an event in the Czech Republic. However, the expected lending booms are smaller than those Ireland and Portugal witnessed recently. We state that, given the current data set, no substantial risk to the banking sectors of the new member states should be expected. We also find that the monetary consequences of these booms for the Euro-area as a whole will be almost negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0502002
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Excessive Credit Growth as an Indicator of Financial (In)Stability and its Use in Macroprudential Policy," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 112-122 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Working Papers 0912, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    3. Geršl, Adam & Jašová, Martina, 2014. "Measures to tame credit growth: Are they effective?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 7-25.
    4. Bilge Kagan Ozdemir, 2009. "Banking Sector Stability During The Process Of Euro Adoption," Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Anadolu University, vol. 9(1), pages 123-1236, June.
    5. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2011. "Credit Growth and Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Research and Policy Notes 2011/02, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    7. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
    8. Buncic, Daniel & Melecky, Martin, 2014. "Equilibrium credit: The reference point for macroprudential supervisors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 135-154.
    9. Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers: Empirical Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers IES 2012/3, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Feb 2012.
    10. Carlos Arriaga & Luis Miranda, 2009. "Risk and Efficiency in Credit Concession: A Case Study in Portugal," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 7(3), pages 307-326.
    11. Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011. "A re-assessment of credit development in European transition economies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 128, pages 33-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    lending booms; Euro area; banking sector stability; new member states;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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