The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland
In this paper, I use a structural VAR model and the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of interest (NRI) in Poland. I show how the NRI can yield important information for a central banker. First, estimation of the NRI can be helpful for monetary authorities, seeking to stabilize inflation after a long process of disinflation. Second, for a country trying to join a monetary union there exists an additional information content of the estimated NRI. The bigger the difference between the candidates and the Unions natural rates, the more likely the “Portuguese” scenario of a widening current account after adopting the common currency.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James B. Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
- Thomas M. Humphrey, 1983. "Can the central bank peg real interest rates? : a survey of classical and neoclassical opinion," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 12-21.
- Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
- Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Katharine S. Neiss & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The real interest rate gap as an inflation indicator," Bank of England working papers 130, Bank of England.
- Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2002. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," NBP Working Papers 27, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2003. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," Macroeconomics 0301008, EconWPA.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
- Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 35, Society for Computational Economics.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
- Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
- Lanne, Markku, 2002. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Research Discussion Papers 21/2002, Bank of Finland.
- Markku Lanne, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Macroeconomics 0405014, EconWPA.
- Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
- Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
- JesÃºs Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2004. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 185-204, June.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald, 2003. "Searching for the Natural Rate of Interest: a Euro-Area Perspective," Working Papers 84, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
- Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, July.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Jesus Crespo-Cuaremsa & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2003. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 60-80 Bank for International Settlements. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)