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Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time

This paper examines policy neutral rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2006:09 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. First, we estimate it using GMM. Second, we apply a structural timevarying parameter model with endogenous regressors to evaluate the fluctuations of policy neutral rate over time. The results suggest that there is substantial interest rate smoothing and central bank primarily responds to inflation (forecast) developments. The estimated parameters seem to sustain the equilibrium determinacy. We find that the policy neutral rate gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area reflecting capital accumulation, smaller risk premium, equilibrium exchange rate appreciation as well as successful disinflation in the Czech economy.

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Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2007/01.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision: Jan 2007
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2007_01
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  10. Joanne Archibald & Leni Hunter, 2001. "What is the neutral real interest rate, and how can we use it?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 64, September.
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  17. Balázs Égert & László Halpern & Ronald MacDonald, 2005. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in T ransition Economies: T aking Stock of the Issues," Working Papers 106, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  18. Gerdesmeier, Dieter & Roffia, Barbara, 2004. "The relevance of real-time data in estimating reaction functions for the Euro area," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 56, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  19. Jaromir Benes & Tibor Hledik & Michael Kumhof & David Vavra, 2005. "An Economy in Transition and DSGE: What the Czech National Bank’s New Projection Model Needs," Working Papers 2005/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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  23. Christopher Adam & David Cobham & Eric Girardin, 2005. "Monetary Frameworks and Institutional Constraints: UK Monetary Policy Reaction Functions, 1985-2003," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 497-516, 08.
  24. Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
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