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Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed

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  • Belke, Ansgar
  • Klose, Jens

Abstract

We propose an alternative way of estimating Taylor reaction functions if the zero-lower-bound on nominal interest rates is binding. This approach relies on tackling the real rather than the nominal interest rate. So if the nominal rate is (close to) zero central banks can influence the inflation expectations via quantitative easing. The unobservable inflation expectations are estimated with a state-space model that additionally generates a time-varying series for the equilibrium real interest rate and the potential output - both needed for estimations of Taylor reaction functions. We test our approach for the ECB and the Fed within the recent crisis. We add other explanatory variables to this modified Taylor reaction function and show that there are substantial differences between the estimated reaction coefficients in the pre- and crisis era for both central banks. While the central banks on both sides of the Atlantic act less inertially, put a smaller weight on the inflation gap, money growth and the risk spread, the response to asset price inflation becomes more pronounced during the crisis. However, the central banks diverge in their response to the output gap and credit growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 343, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:343
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Xiaoli & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Kuper, Gerard H. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2013. "On the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Euro Area," Working Papers 17209, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 16 Oct 2013.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel & Osowski, Thomas, 2016. "Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials," CEPS Papers 11266, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    3. repec:lrk:eeaart:36_1_20 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio & Riedel, Max, 2016. "A quasi real-time leading indicator for the EU industrial production," SAFE Working Paper Series 118 [rev.], Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    5. César Carrera & Fernando Pérez Forero & Nelson Ramírez-Rondán, 2015. "Effects of U.S. Quantitative Easing on Latin American Economies," Working Papers 2015-35, Peruvian Economic Association.
    6. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area - A Model Based View," Ruhr Economic Papers 0467, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. repec:zbw:rwirep:0467 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ansgar Belke, 2014. "Exit Strategies and Their Impact on the Euro Area – A Model Based View," ROME Working Papers 201401, ROME Network.
    9. Carrera, César & Pérez-Forero, Fernando & Ramírez-Rondán, Nelson, 2014. "Effects of the U.S. quantitative easing on the Peruvian economy," Working Papers 2014-017, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    10. repec:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9339-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Dreger, Christian, 2014. "Does the foreign interest rate matter for monetary policy? Evidence from nonlinear Taylor rules," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100450, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Cleomar Gomes da silva & Flavio V. Vieira, 2016. "Monetary policy decision making: the role of ideology, institutions and central bank independence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2051-2062.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Zero-lower-bound; Federal Reserve; European Central Bank; equilibrium real interest rate; Taylor rule;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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