Measuring equilibrium real interest rates: what can we learn from yields on indexed bonds?
What does the level of the real interest rates tell us about where the economy, or one's portfolio, is headed? The answer to this question depends on one's estimate of the ``equilibrium'' value of real interest rates, a measure that is unfortunately not directly observed in the market place. In this paper, I provide a brief overview of some of the existing approaches to defining and measuring equilibrium real rates and introduce a novel method based on yields on the U.S. Treasury's inflation-indexed securities (TIIS). I discuss a simple framework for analyzing TIIS yields and illustrate how to use them to gauge the stance of monetary policy and overall economic prospects.
|Date of creation:||2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 20th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20551|
Web page: http://www.federalreserve.gov/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/fedsorder.html|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Svensson, L.E.O., 1994.
"Estimating and Interpreting Foreward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994,"
579, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lars E. O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates; Sweden 1992-1994," IMF Working Papers 94/114, International Monetary Fund.
- Ben Bernanke, 1990.
"The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission,"
NBER Working Papers
3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Alan S. Blinder, 1989. "The federal funds rate and the channels of monetary transmission," Working Papers 89-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Robert A. Jarrow, 2009. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 69-96, November.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001.
"Measuring the natural rate of interest,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bomfim, Antulio N, 1997. "The Equilibrium Fed Funds Rate and the Indicator Properties of Term-Structure Spreads," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(4), pages 830-46, October.
- Flint Brayton & Peter A. Tinsley, 1996. "A guide to FRB/US: a macroeconomic model of the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983.
"Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2001-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marlene Vikor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.