IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v32y2008i6p2013-2030.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach

Author

Listed:
  • Leigh, Daniel

Abstract

Existing estimates of the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target typically rely on the assumption that it is constant for the duration of the period of analysis. This paper relaxes this assumption and estimates the implicit inflation target using a time-varying parameter model and the Kalman filter. In applying this method to the Volcker-Greenspan period, it finds significant time variation in the implicit target that is consistent with hypotheses about 'opportunistic disinflation' and the recent 'deflation scare'.

Suggested Citation

  • Leigh, Daniel, 2008. "Estimating the Federal Reserve's implicit inflation target: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 2013-2030, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:2013-2030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(07)00190-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2004. "The difficulty of discerning what's too tight: Taylor rules and Japanese monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 53-74, March.
    2. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Testing The Opportunistic Approach To Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, pages 110-125.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke, 2002. "Deflation: making sure "it" doesn't happen here," Speech 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    5. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    6. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    7. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 2004. "The role of policy rules in inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 89-112.
    8. Jane Haltmaier, 2001. "The use of cyclical indicators in estimating the output gap in Japan," International Finance Discussion Papers 701, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 964-985.
    10. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
    11. Daniel Leigh, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Dangers of Deflation:Lessons from Japan," Economics Working Paper Archive 511, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    12. Louis J. Maccini & Bartholomew J. Moore & Huntley Schaller, 2004. "The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 1303-1327.
    13. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters,in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    15. Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
    16. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, pages 115-120.
    17. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wilcox, David W, 2002. "The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 47-71, Spring.
    18. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2002:i:nov21 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    20. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    21. Kuzin, Vladimir, 2006. "The inflation aversion of the Bundesbank: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1671-1686.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sinclair, Tara M. & Gamber, Edward N. & Stekler, Herman & Reid, Elizabeth, 2012. "Jointly evaluating the Federal Reserve’s forecasts of GDP growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 309-314.
    2. Yulei Peng & Anastasia Zervou, 2014. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Equity Premium," Working Papers 20141115_001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    3. Zervou, Anastasia S., 2013. "Financial market segmentation, stock market volatility and the role of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 256-272.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 0343, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Frenkel, Michael & Lis, Eliza M. & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2011. "Has the economic crisis of 2007-2009 changed the expectation formation process in the Euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1808-1814, July.
    7. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    8. Ascari, Guido & Ropele, Tiziano, 2012. "Disinflation in a DSGE perspective: Sacrifice ratio or welfare gain ratio?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 169-182.
    9. repec:zbw:rwirep:0343 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do Inflation Expectations Propagate the Inflationary Impact of Real Oil Price Shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(8), pages 1673-1689, December.
    11. Huang, Yu-Fan, 2015. "Time variation in U.S. monetary policy and credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 205-215.
    12. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 343, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    13. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2010. "Determinants of Time-Varying Sensitivity of MENA Countries to Global Shocks: A State Space Approach," Working Papers 530, Economic Research Forum, revised 06 Jan 2010.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. repec:zbw:rwirep:0166 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Jens Klose, 2012. "Political business cycles and monetary policy revisited–an application of a two-dimensional asymmetric Taylor reaction function," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-295, September.
    17. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run," MPRA Paper 57770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Scott, C. Patrick & Barari, Mahua, 2017. "Monetary policy deviations: A Bayesian state-space analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-12.
    19. Jens Klose, 2011. "Political Business Cycles and Monetary Policy Revisited – An Application of a Two-Dimensional Asymmetric Taylor Reaction Function," Ruhr Economic Papers 0286, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    20. Ralf Fendel & Eliza M. Lis & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2009. "Do Euro Area Forecasters (Still) Have Faith in Macroeconomic Building Blocks? – Expectation Formation when Economics is in Crisis," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 09-03, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    21. Ahmad, Saad, 2016. "A multiple threshold analysis of the Fed's balancing act during the Great Moderation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 343-358.
    22. Bedri Kamil Onur Tas, 2014. "Why is Inflation Targeting Successful?: Analysis of Inflation Target Transparency," EcoMod2014 6725, EcoMod.
    23. repec:zbw:rwirep:0286 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Koppány, Krisztián, 2011. "Vezethet-e a válság deflációs spirálhoz?. Modellszámítások a likviditási csapdában lévő Egyesült Államokra
      [Could the crisis lead to a deflationary spiral?. Modelling the United States in a liquidi
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 197-228.
    25. Klose, Jens, 2011. "Asymmetric Taylor reaction functions of the ECB: An approach depending on the state of the economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 149-163, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:6:p:2013-2030. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.