The Taylor rule and interest rate uncertainty in the U.S. 1955-2006
We use a Taylor rule with time-varying policy coefficients in combination with an unobserved components model for the output gap to estimate the uncertainty about future values of the Federal Funds Rate. The model makes it possible to separate ex-ante interest rate uncertainty into three components: 1) uncertainty about the Fed's future policy coefficients, 2) uncertainty about future economic fundamentals, and 3) residual uncertainty. The results show important changes in uncertainty about future short-term interest rates over time with peaks in the late 1960s/early 1970s, mid 1970s and late 1970s/early 1980s. While for one-quarter forecasts uncertainty about the Fed's policy reaction is more important than uncertainty about economic fundamentals this result is reversed for the two-quarter forecast horizon. Results from a modified model with regime shifts in the variance of the policy shocks confirm the previous findings but show changes in residual uncertainty to be important as well.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jean Boivin, 2005.
"Has US Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data,"
NBER Working Papers
11314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Boivin, Jean, 2006. "Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1149-1173, August.
- Juan Ayuso & Andrew Haldane & Fernando Restoy, 1997. "Volatility transmission along the money market yield curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 56-75, March.
- Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998.
"Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory,"
98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
- Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1908, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
- Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini, 2002. "The Euro and Monetary Policy Transparency," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 59-70, Winter.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Muellbauer, John & Nunziata, Luca, 2004. "Forecasting (and Explaining) US Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4584, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005.
"Investment and Uncertainty in the G7,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
- Carlo A. Favero & Federico Mosca, .
"Uncertainty on Monetary Policy and the Expectations Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates,"
179, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on monetary policy and the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 369-375, June.
- Favero, Carlo A. & Mosca, Federico, 2001. "Uncertainty on Monetary Policy and the Expectational Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 2748, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388.
- William Poole, 2005.
"How predictable is Fed policy?,"
91, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2006.
"Monetary policy regime shifts: new evidence from time-varying interest rate rules,"
0602, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
- Carmine Trecroci & Matilde Vassalli, 2010. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts: New Evidence From Time-Varying Interest Rate Rules," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 48(4), pages 933-950, October.
- Kuzin, Vladimir, 2006. "The inflation aversion of the Bundesbank: A state space approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1671-1686.
- Lanne, Markku & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2000.
"Modeling the US short-term interest rate by mixture autoregressive processes,"
SFB 373 Discussion Papers
2000,76, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 1(1), pages 96-125.
- Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "Modeling the U.S. Short-Term Interest Rate by Mixture Autoregressive Processes," CeNDEF Workshop Papers, January 2001 PO5, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-84, January.
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
- Fabio Fornari, 2005. "The rise and fall of US dollar interest rate volatility: evidence from swaptions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Sun, Licheng, 2005. "Regime shifts in interest rate volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 418-434, June.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 1998.
"Monetary policy rules based on real-time data,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Trehan, Bharat & Wu, Tao, 2007.
"Time-varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1584-1609, May.
- Bharat Trehan & Tao Wu, 2004. "Time varying equilibrium real rates and monetary policy analysis," Working Paper Series 2004-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Athanasios Orphanides, 2002.
"Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2002-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- Chuderewicz, Russell P., 2002. "Using interest rate uncertainty to predict the paper-bill spread and real output," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 293-312.
- Vincent Reinhart, 2003. "Making monetary policy in an uncertain world," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 265-274.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2340. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.