IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uwarer/269313.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Role of Money in Federal Reserve Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Qureshi, Irfan

Abstract

Is the classic Taylor rule misspecified? I show that the inability of the Taylor rule to explain the federal funds rate using real-time data stems from the omission of a money growth objective. I highlight the significant role played by money in the policy discourse during the Volcker-Greenspan era using new FOMC data, benchmarking a novel characterization of “good” policy. An application of this framework offers a unified policy-based explanation of the Great Moderation and Recession. Welfare analysis based on the New-Keynesian model endorses the rule with money. The evidence raises significant concerns about relying on the simple Taylor rule as a policy benchmark and suggests why money may serve as a useful indicator in guiding future monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Qureshi, Irfan, 2016. "The Role of Money in Federal Reserve Policy," Economic Research Papers 269313, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:269313
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.269313
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/269313/files/twerp_1133_qureshi.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/269313/files/twerp_1133_qureshi.pdf?subformat=pdfa
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.269313?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qureshi, Irfan, 2016. "Monetarism, Indeterminacy and the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1123, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Coenen, Gunter & Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Data uncertainty and the role of money as an information variable for monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 975-1006, May.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    4. Ulf Söderström, 2005. "Targeting Inflation with a Role for Money," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(288), pages 577-596, November.
    5. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    7. Lubik, Thomas A. & Matthes, Christian, 2016. "Indeterminacy and learning: An analysis of monetary policy in the Great Inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 85-106.
    8. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2016. "The evolution of U.S. monetary policy: 2000–2007," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 78-93.
    9. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    10. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary-Policy Rules and the Great Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 115-120, May.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    12. Favara, Giovanni & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Reconsidering the role of money for output, prices and interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 419-430, April.
    13. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
    14. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    16. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "Interest Rates and Money in the Measurement of Monetary Policy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 255-269, April.
    17. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    18. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2016. "Money and Output: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1223-1266, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2021. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 333-366, March.
    2. Qureshi, Irfan, 2018. "Money Aggregates and Determinacy : A Reinterpretation of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1156, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Benchimol, Jonathan & Qureshi, Irfan, 2020. "Time-varying money demand and real balance effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 197-211.
    4. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2018. "Price puzzle in a small open New Keynesian model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 29-42.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qureshi, Irfan, 2018. "Money Aggregates and Determinacy : A Reinterpretation of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1156, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    2. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    4. Qureshi, Irfan, 2016. "Monetarism, Indeterminacy and the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1123, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Mandler, Martin, 2009. "In search of robust monetary policy rules - Should the Fed look at money growth or stock market performance?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 345-361, June.
    6. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    7. Ellington, Michael, 2018. "The case for Divisia monetary statistics: A Bayesian time-varying approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 26-41.
    8. Matthew Doyle & Jean-Paul Lam, 2010. "Is the New Keynesian Explanation of the Great Dis-Inflation Consistent with the Cross Country Data?," Working Papers 1010, University of Waterloo, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    9. Givens, Gregory E. & Salemi, Michael K., 2015. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 190-208.
    10. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2017. "Circumventing the zero lower bound with monetary policy rules based on money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PA), pages 42-58.
    11. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2021. "A Classical View of the Business Cycle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 333-366, March.
    12. Baxa, Jaromír & Horváth, Roman & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013. "Time-varying monetary-policy rules and financial stress: Does financial instability matter for monetary policy?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-138.
    13. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor rule in the time-frequency domain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 122-137.
    15. Arias, Jonas E. & Caldara, Dario & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan F., 2019. "The systematic component of monetary policy in SVARs: An agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 81646, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2017.
    17. Mandler, Martin, 2006. "Are there gains from including monetary aggregates and stock market indices in the monetary policy reaction function? A simulation study of recent U.S. monetary policy," MPRA Paper 2318, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gerberding, Christina & Seitz, Franz & Worms, Andreas, 2007. "Money-based interest rate rules: lessons from German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,06, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Shang-Jin Wei, 2018. "Managing Financial Globalization: Insights from the Recent Literature," Working Papers id:12586, eSocialSciences.
    20. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Kim, 2012. "The evolution of the monetary policy regimes in the U.S," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 617-649, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uwarer:269313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/workingpapers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.