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Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Yasuo Hirose

    (Keio University)

  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Bank of Japan)

  • Willem Van Zandweghe

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City)

Abstract

A large literature has established that the Fed's change from a passive to an active policy response to inflation led to U.S. macroeconomic stability after the Great Inflation of the 1970s. This paper revisits the literature's view by estimating a generalized New Keynesian model using a full-information Bayesian method that allows for equilibrium indeterminacy and adopts a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm. The estimated model shows an active policy response to inflation even during the Great Inflation. Moreover, a more active policy response to inflation alone does not suffice for explaining the macroeconomic stability, unless it is accompanied by a change in either trend inflation or policy responses to the output gap and output growth. Our model empirically outperforms its canonical counterpart that is similar to models used in the literature, thus giving strong support to our view.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," 2018 Meeting Papers 219, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:219
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Karagiannides & Christos Liambas, 2019. "Determinacy and Taylor’s Rule with Different Degrees of Trade Openness in a Semi-New Keynesian Model," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(6), pages 43-53, November.
    2. Giovanni Nicolo, 2020. "Monetary Policy, Self-Fulfilling Expectations and the U.S. Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-035, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jonas E. Arias & Guido Ascari & Nicola Branzoli & Efrem Castelnuovo, 2020. "Positive Trend Inflation and Determinacy in a Medium-Sized New Keynesian Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(3), pages 51-94, June.
    4. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, 2018. "Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?," School of Economics Working Papers 2018-03, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    5. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    6. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Target and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    7. Khan, Hashmat & Phaneuf, Louis & Victor, Jean Gardy, 2020. "Rules-based monetary policy and the threat of indeterminacy when trend inflation is low," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 317-333.
    8. Yasufumi Gemma & Takushi Kurozumi & Mototsugu Shintani, 2017. "Trend Inflation and Evolving Inflation Dynamics: A Bayesian GMM Analysis of the Generalized New Keynesian Phillips Curve," IMES Discussion Paper Series 17-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    9. Zhang, Bo & Dai, Wei, 2020. "Trend inflation and macroeconomic stability in a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 769-778.
    10. Qureshi, Irfan, 2018. "Money Aggregates and Determinacy : A Reinterpretation of Monetary Policy During the Great Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1156, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Takefumi Yamazaki, 2018. "Financial friction sources in emerging economies: Structural estimation of sovereign default models," Discussion papers ron303, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    12. Qazi Haque, 2017. "Monetary Policy, Target Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Empirical Investigation," School of Economics Working Papers 2017-10, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    13. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Output-Inflation Trade-offs and the Optimal Inflation Rate," Working Papers 202020, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2018. "Why Has Inflation Persistence Declined?," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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