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A Note On Expectational Stability Under Nonzero Trend Inflation

Author

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  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi
  • Muto, Ichiro

Abstract

This study examines the expectational stability of rational expectations equilibria (REE) under alternative Taylor rules when trend inflation is nonzero. We find that when trend inflation is high, the REE is likely to be expectationally unstable. This result holds true regardless of the nature of the data (such as contemporaneous, forecast, or lagged data) introduced in the Taylor rule. Our results suggest that high macroeconomic volatility during the period of high trend inflation can be explained well by introducing the concept of expectational stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Kobayashi, Teruyoshi & Muto, Ichiro, 2013. "A Note On Expectational Stability Under Nonzero Trend Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 681-693, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:17:y:2013:i:03:p:681-693_00
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    Cited by:

    1. By Anna Florio & Alessandro Gobbi, 2015. "Learning the monetary/fiscal interaction under trend inflation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1146-1164.
    2. Ascari, Guido & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2017. "Transparency, expectations anchoring and inflation target," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 261-273.
    3. Weber, Henning, 2011. "Optimal inflation and firms' productivity dynamics," Kiel Working Papers 1685, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    4. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "Trend inflation, sticky prices, and expectational stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 175-187.
    5. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary policy, trend inflation, and the Great Moderation: an alternative interpretation: comment based on system estimation," Research Working Paper RWP 15-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    6. Hasui, Kohei, 2020. "A Note On Robust Monetary Policy And Non-Zero Trend Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1574-1594, September.
    7. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    8. Kurozumi, Takushi & Van Zandweghe, Willem, 2017. "Trend Inflation And Equilibrium Stability: Firm-Specific Versus Homogeneous Labor," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 947-981, June.
    9. Muto, Ichiro, 2011. "Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
    10. Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2014. "A pitfall of expectational stability analysis," Research Working Paper RWP 14-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    11. Abhishek Das & Arpita Ghose & Gautam Gupta, 2016. "Role of monetary policy in a New Keynesian economy: a note from a laboratory experiment," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 204-216, July.
    12. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
    13. Weber, Henning, 2012. "The optimal inflation rate and firm-level productivity growth," Kiel Working Papers 1773, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    14. Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability Revisited," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 255-274, July.
    15. Ikeda, Taro, 2014. "Asymmetric preferences in real-time learning and the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 487-489.
    16. William A. Branch & George W. Evans, 2017. "Unstable Inflation Targets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 767-806, June.
    17. Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2017. "A Note On Trend Growth And Learning About Monetary Policy Rules In A Two-Block World Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 243-258, January.
    18. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2014. "Trend growth and learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 241-256.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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