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Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast

Listed author(s):
  • Muto, Ichiro

We examine the expectational stability (E-stability) of rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in a standard New Keynesian model in which private agents refer to the central bank's forecast in the process of adaptive learning. To satisfy the E-stability condition in this environment, the central bank must respond more strongly to the expected inflation rate than the extent to which the Taylor principle suggests. However, the central bank's strong reaction to the expected inflation rate raises the possibility of indeterminacy of the REE. In considering these problems, a robust policy requires responding to the current inflation rate to a certain degree.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 52-66

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:1:p:52-66
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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  1. Guse, Eran A., 2005. "Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 1623-1642, October.
  2. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/18, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  3. Branch, William A. & McGough, Bruce, 2009. "A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 1036-1051, May.
  4. Bennett T. McCallum, 2006. "E-Stability vis-a-vis Determinacy Results for a Broad Class of Linear Rational Expectations Models," NBER Working Papers 12441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
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  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Adaptive learning and monetary policy design," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1045-1084.
  8. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
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  12. McCallum, Bennett T., 1983. "On non-uniqueness in rational expectations models : An attempt at perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 139-168.
  13. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," CESifo Working Paper Series 772, CESifo Group Munich.
  14. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2003. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(4), pages 807-824.
  15. Jim Granato & Eran Guse & Sunny Wong, 2006. "Learning From the Expectations of Others," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 449, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
  17. Howitt, Peter, 1992. "Interest Rate Control and Nonconvergence to Rational Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(4), pages 776-800, August.
  18. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," NBER Working Papers 10309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
  20. Teruyoshi Kobayashi & Ichiro Muto, 2011. "A note on expectational stability under non-zero trend inflation," Discussion Papers 1102, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  21. James B. Bullard & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Working Papers 2000-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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