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Monetary Policy Rules, Learning and Stability: a Survey of the Recent Literature (In French)

  • Martin ZUMPE (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113)

This paper presents the literature about econometric learning and its impact on the performances of monetary policy rules in the framework of the new canonical macroeconomic model. Rational expectations which are a building block of the original model can thus be replaced by expectations based on estimation algorithms. The permanent updating of these estimations can be interpreted as a learning proces of the model’s agents. This learning proces induces additional dynamics into the model. The literature in question uses two criteria in order to analyse the ability of monetary policy rules to stabilise the economy: (i) uniqueness of the rational expectations equilibrium in the original model and (ii) stability in regards to learning in the modified model. Taking learning into account enables to detect shortcomings of a rule according to (ii) that would not been seen in a rational expectations model. However, the main message of the surveyed literature is that most of the results found in a rational expectations framework are robust. The paper ends with a discussion on the specific problems met in the introduction of a learning proces in the new canonical model.

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Paper provided by Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée in its series Cahiers du GREThA with number 2010-01.

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Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2010-01
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  1. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008. "Expectations, Learning, And Monetary Policy: An Overview Of Recent Research," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 501, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2002. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy Design," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-18, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 04 Mar 2004.
  6. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/17, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  7. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2001. "Expectations and the Stability Problem for Optimal Monetary Policies," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2001-6, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 03 Aug 2001.
  8. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, . "Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?," Discussion Papers 01/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  9. Preston, Bruce, 2006. "Adaptive learning, forecast-based instrument rules and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 507-535, April.
  10. George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Friedman’s money supply rule vs optimal interest rate policy," Macroeconomics 0405002, EconWPA.
  11. Hall, R.E. & Mankiw, N.G., 1993. "Nominal Income Targeting," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1650, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Kaushik Mitra & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting," Royal Holloway, University of London: Discussion Papers in Economics 04/18, Department of Economics, Royal Holloway University of London, revised Jul 2004.
  13. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  14. Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. " Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting under Adaptive Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 197-220, April.
  15. Bruce Preston, 2005. "Learning about Monetary Policy Rules when Long-Horizon Expectations Matter," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
  16. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  17. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
  18. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530 Elsevier.
  19. Bennett T. McCallum, 2002. "Consistent Expectations, Rational Expectations, Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies, and Least-Squares Learnability," NBER Working Papers 9218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2003. "Heterogeneous Learning," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 885-906, October.
  21. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  22. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  23. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1992. "On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, February.
  24. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:100:y:1985:i:4:p:1217-33 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Preston, Bruce, 2008. "Adaptive learning and the use of forecasts in monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3661-3681, November.
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