Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12227
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "Informational Advantage and Influence of Communicating Central Banks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
References listed on IDEAS
- Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007.
"Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP2007/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open Economy Dsge-Var Forecasting And Policy Analysis: Head To Head With The Rbnz Published Forecasts," CAMA Working Papers 2007-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1989.
"The Informational Context of Ex Ante Forecasts,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 325-331, May.
- Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 2503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ray C. Fair & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 857, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Faust Jon & Swanson Eric T & Wright Jonathan H, 2004. "Do Federal Reserve Policy Surprises Reveal Superior Information about the Economy?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-31, October.
- Muto, Ichiro, 2011.
"Monetary policy and learning from the central bank's forecast,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 52-66, January.
- Ichiro Muto, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Learning from the Central Bank's Forecast," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2008.
"Inflation Targets as Focal Points,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(1), pages 55-87, March.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2004. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," DNB Working Papers 017, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 52, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Maria Demertzis & Nicola Viegi, 2005. "Inflation Targets as Focal Points," Working Papers 02, Economic Research Southern Africa.
- Cooper, J Phillip & Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "The Ex Ante Prediction Performance of the St. Louis and FRB-MIT-PENN Econometric Models and Some Results on Composite Predictors," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, February.
- Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010.
"Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(5), pages 866-907.
- Manuel Amador & Pierre Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," 2008 Meeting Papers 390, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Manuel Amador & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2008. "Learning from Prices: Public Communication and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 14255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engelberg, Joseph & Manski, Charles F. & Williams, Jared, 2009.
"Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 30-41.
- Joseph Engelberg & Charles F. Manski & Jared Williams, 2006. "Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 11978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marie Diron & Benoit Mojon, 2008. "Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 32(Q II), pages 33-45.
- Michael Ehrmann & Sylvester Eijffinger & Marcel Fratzscher, 2012.
"The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts,"
Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(3), pages 1018-1052, September.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 7585, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "The role of central bank transparency for guiding private sector forecasts," Working Paper Series 1146, European Central Bank.
- Ehrmann, M. & Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Fratzcher, M., 2010. "The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts," Other publications TiSEM 25125044-98fc-44b3-8698-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002.
"The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 520-539, May.
- Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Faust, J. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," Papers 669, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Jon Faust & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "The equilibrium degree of transparency and control in monetary policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 651, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Svensson, Lars & Faust, Jon, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," Seminar Papers 669, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Jon Faust & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 7152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2003.
"Does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 817-839, May.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Does the Federal Reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?," Working Papers 99-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- West, Kenneth D, 1996.
"Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-1084, September.
- West, K.D., 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Working papers 9417, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
- Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 88, European Central Bank.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fujiwara, Ippei, 2005. "Is the central bank's publication of economic forecasts influential?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(3), pages 255-261, December.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Volker W. Wieland, 2008.
"Economic projections and rules of thumb for monetary policy,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(Jul), pages 307-324.
- Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 07-035, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Economic projections and rules-of-thumb for monetary policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Athanasios Orphanides & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/16, Center for Financial Studies.
- Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Economic Projections and Rules-of-Thumb for Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6748, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Malin Adolfson & Michael K. Andersson & Jesper Lindé & Mattias Villani & Anders Vredin, 2007.
"Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(4), pages 111-144, December.
- Adolfson, Malin & Andersson, Michael K. & Lindé, Jesper & Villani, Mattias & Vredin, Anders, 2005. "Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks," Working Paper Series 188, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jun 2006.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2008.
"Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 609-620, 04-05.
- D'Agostino, A & Whelan, K, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 6092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonello D'Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation," Working Papers 200722, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Karl Whelan & Antonello D'Agostino, 2007. "Federal Reserve information during the great moderation," Open Access publications 10197/235, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Karl Whelan & Antonello D'Agostino, 2008. "Federal Reserve information during the great moderation," Open Access publications 10197/252, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Baghestani, Hamid, 2008. "Federal Reserve versus private information: Who is the best unemployment rate predictor," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 101-110.
- Refet S Gürkaynak & Andrew Levin & Eric Swanson, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Long-Run Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the U.S., UK, and Sweden," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(6), pages 1208-1242, December.
- Michael Woodford, 2005.
"Central bank communication and policy effectiveness,"
Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
- Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baeriswyl, Romain & Cornand, Camille, 2010.
"The signaling role of policy actions,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 682-695, September.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2010. "The signaling role of policy action," Working Papers of BETA 2010-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- Romain Baeriswyl & Camille Cornand, 2010. "The signaling role of policy actions," Post-Print halshs-01704165, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2010.
"Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 235-271, July.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central bank communication and expectations stabilization," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue March, pages 1-43.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2007. "Central Bank Communication and Expectations Stabilization," NBER Working Papers 13259, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Volker Wieland & Maik Wolters, 2011.
"The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 247-292, June.
- Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7870, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik H., 2010. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Volker Wieland & Maik Wolters, 2010. "The Diversity of Forecasts from Macroeconomic Models of the U.S. Economy," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/08, Center for Financial Studies.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
- Christopher W. Crowe, 2006. "Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting; Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 2006/289, International Monetary Fund.
- Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1989.
"Scoring the Leading Indicators,"
The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 369-391, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Scoring the leading indicators," Special Studies Papers 206, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007.
"The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?,"
DNB Working Papers
148, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "The Importance of Being Vigilant: Has ECB Communication Influenced Euro Area Inflation Expectations?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2134, CESifo.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015.
"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process; A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010.
"A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A Comparison Of Forecast Performance Between Federal Reserve Staff Forecasts, Simple Reduced-Form Models, And A Dsge Model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Boero, Gianna & Smith, Jeremy & Wallis, Kenneth F., 2008. "Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecasts: The Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 354-367.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997.
"Inflation forecasts and monetary policy,"
Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
- Bernanke, Ben S & Woodford, Michael, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 653-684, November.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation Forecasts and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 6157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 453-455, March.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003.
"Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
- Anderson, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-1, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," NBER Working Papers 8959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Casillas-Olvera, Gabriel & Bessler, David A., 2006. "Probability forecasting and central bank accountability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 223-234, February.
- Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 2001.
"Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals,"
International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(2), pages 369-397, May.
- Faust, J. & Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," Papers 636, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," CEPR Discussion Papers 1852, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jon Faust & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," NBER Working Papers 6452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jon Faust & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Transparency and credibility: monetary policy with unobservable goals," International Finance Discussion Papers 605, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Svensson, Lars E.O. & Faust, John, 1998. "Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals," Seminar Papers 636, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005.
"Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
- Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2004. "Do actions speak louder than words? the response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-66, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Gurkaynak, Refet S & Sack, Brian & Swanson, Eric T, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," MPRA Paper 820, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Refet Gurkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Macroeconomics 0504013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Refet Gürkaynak & Brian Sack, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words?The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 323, Society for Computational Economics.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004.
"Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area,"
Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 841-867, November.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Raf, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE model: an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 389, European Central Bank.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: an application to the euro area," Working Paper Research 60, National Bank of Belgium.
- Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2004. "Forecasting with a Bayesian DSGE Model: An Application to the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 4749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1998. "Does the Federal Reserve have an informational advantage? you can bank on it," Working Papers 98-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008.
"The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 230-235, May.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2008. "The FOMC versus the Staff: Where Can Monetary Policymakers Add Value?," NBER Working Papers 13751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
- Swanson, Eric T., 2006. "Have Increases in Federal Reserve Transparency Improved Private Sector Interest Rate Forecasts?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(3), pages 791-819, April.
- Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M. & Natalucci, Fabio M., 2004. "Explicit inflation objectives and macroeconomic outcomes," Working Paper Series 383, European Central Bank.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007.
"Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, February.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2006. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," NBER Working Papers 12324, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009.
"Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
- Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2001.
"Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?,"
Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(May), pages 11-20.
- William T. Gavin & Rachel J. Mandal, 2000. "Forecasting inflation and growth: do private forecasts match those of policymakers?," Working Papers 2000-026, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2008. "Efficient forecast tests for conditional policy forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 293-303, October.
- Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
- Geraats Petra M., 2005.
"Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, February.
- Geraats, P.M., 2004. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0473, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Paul Hubert, 2014.
"FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "FOMC forecasts as a focal point for private expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Crowe, Christopher, 2010. "Testing the transparency benefits of inflation targeting: Evidence from private sector forecasts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 226-232, March.
- Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Carlos Capistr¡N & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010.
"Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, February.
- Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2007. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Working Papers 2007-11, Banco de México.
- Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
- repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 655-680, October.
- Paul Hubert, 2011. "Central Bank Forecasts as an Instrument of Monetary Policy," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-23, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "The influence and policy signaling role of FOMC forecasts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"Revisiting the Greenbook’s relative forecasting performance,"
Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 151-179.
- Paul Hubert, 2009. "An Empirical Review of Federal Reserve’s Informational Advantage," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-03, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Post-Print hal-01087522, HAL.
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "Revisiting the greenbook's relative forecasting performance," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/35kgubh40v9, Sciences Po.
- repec:fce:doctra:13-03 is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2015.
"ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "ECB projections as a tool for understanding policy decisions," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-04, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Paul Hubert, 2015. "The effect of interest rate and communication shocks on private inflation expectations," Working papers wpaper122, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
- repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3pot7260lh88lrfhrhvs85lh2f is not listed on IDEAS
- Paul Hubert, 2014.
"FOMC Forecasts as a Focal Point for Private Expectations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1381-1420, October.
- Paul Hubert, 2013. "FOMC forecasts as a focal point for private expectations," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2013-12, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- repec:fce:doctra:13-04 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008.
"Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," DNB Working Papers 170, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Blinder, Alan S. & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & de Haan, Jakob & Jansen, David-Jan, 2008. "Central Bank communication and monetary policy: a survey of theory and evidence," Working Paper Series 898, European Central Bank.
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 1038, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 13932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- João Valle e Azevedo, 2011.
"Rational vs. professional forecasts,"
Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Ahrens, Steffen & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Tettamanzi, Michele, 2017. "The Stabilizing Role of Forward Guidance: A Macro Experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168063, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
- Elmar Mertens, 2016.
"Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.
- Elmar Mertens, 2008. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion?," Working Papers 08.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Managing beliefs about monetary policy under discretion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Messina, Jeffrey D. & Sinclair, Tara M. & Stekler, Herman, 2015.
"What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 54-62.
- Tara M. Sinclair & Jeff Messina & Herman Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Jeff Messina & Tara M. Sinclair & Herman O. Stekler, 2014. "What Can We Learn From Revisions To The Greenbook Forecasts?," Working Papers 2014-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B., 2008. "The economic impact of central bank transparency," Other publications TiSEM 86c1ba91-1952-45b4-adac-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012.
"Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?,"
IWH Discussion Papers
5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
- Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2013. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79925, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Bedri Kamil Onur Taş, 2016. "Does the Federal Reserve have Private Information about its Future Actions?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 83(331), pages 498-517, July.
- Liu, Dandan & Smith, Julie K., 2014. "Inflation forecasts and core inflation measures: Where is the information on future inflation?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 133-137.
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K., 2009.
"Are the Fed's inflation forecasts still superior to the private sector's?,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 240-251, June.
- Edward N. Gamber & Julie K. Smith, 2007. "Are the Fed’s Inflation Forecasts Still Superior to the Private Sector’s?," Working Papers 2007-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting, revised Jul 2008.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007.
"The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey,"
Discussion Paper
2007-06, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Carin van der Cruijsen & Sylvester Eijffinger, 2007. "The economic impact of central bank transparency: a survey," DNB Working Papers 132, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & van der Cruijsen, Carin A B, 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 6070, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- van der Cruijsen, C.A.B. & Eijffinger, S.C.W., 2007. "The Economic Impact of Central Bank Transparency : A Survey," Other publications TiSEM c0ec8638-a29c-48e3-be11-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Pedersen, Michael, 2015. "What affects the predictions of private forecasters? The role of central bank forecasts in Chile," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1043-1055.
- Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & McNamara, Dylan C., 2014. "Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 296-312.
- Rhee, Hyuk Jae & Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2013. "Central bank transparency: Does it matter?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 183-197.
More about this item
JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:47:y:2015:i:4:p:771-789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.