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An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve

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  • Joutz, Fred
  • Stekler, H. O.

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  • Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:16:y:2000:i:1:p:17-38
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jansen, Dennis W. & Kishan, Ruby Pandey, 1996. "An evaluation of federal reserve forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 89-109.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Stephen K. McNees, 1987. "Consensus forecasts: tyranny of the majority?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Nov, pages 15-21.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-853, October.
    5. Joutz, Frederick L. & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Comment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 179-187, January.
    6. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    7. Frederick L. Joutz, 1988. "Informational efficiency tests of quarterly macroeconometric GNP forecasts from 1976 to 1985," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 311-330, December.
    8. Karamouzis, Nicholas & Lombra, Raymond, 1989. "Federal reserve policymaking: an overview and analysis of the policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 7-62, January.
    9. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-735, September.
    10. Jansen, Dennis W. & Kishan, Ruby P., 1999. "An Evaluation of Federal Reserve Forecasting: Reply," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 189-203, January.
    11. Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1990. "The lead and accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 111-123.
    12. H. O. Stekler, 1968. "An Evaluation of Quarterly Judgmental Economic Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41, pages 329-329.
    13. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
    14. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    15. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1, March.
    16. Schnader, M H & Stekler, H O, 1990. "Evaluating Predictions of Change," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 99-107, January.
    17. Scotese, Carol A., 1994. "Forecast smoothing and the optimal under-utilization of information at the federal reserve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 653-670.
    18. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    19. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
    20. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1985. "Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(4), pages 293-311, October.
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