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Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Carol T. West

    (University of Florida)

Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to partially fill that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0403004.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: 23 Mar 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0403004
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 34
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "A Composite Approach to Forecasting State Government Revenues," Public Economics 0408006, EconWPA.
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  20. Taylor, Carol A., 1982. "Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas : An analysis of alternative methodologies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 425-448, August.
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