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Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Carol T. West

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

Regional econometric forecasting accuracy assessment has traditionally received less attention than its macroeconometric counterpart. While evidence is available that state and local employment forecasts perform well relative to standard benchmarks, little is known about the historical performance of widely cited regional housing start forecasts. This paper attempts to partially fill that gap in the literature by assessing the accuracy of previously published residential construction forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan areas. Results indicate that regional econometric housing start forecasts are less reliable than regional employment structural model forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0403004
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Carol T. West & M. S. Deepak, 2001. "Policy Sensitivity in Dynamic Optimization Models: A Study Remembering William Alonso’s Regional Modeling Perspectives," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(3), pages 302-327, July.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    3. West, Carol T., 2003. "The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 33(1), pages 85-103.
    4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Roberto Tinajero & Thomas M. Fullerton & Lawrence Waldman, 2005. "Regional econometric income forecast accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 325-333.
    8. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional econometrics; housing starts; forecast accuracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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