IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/43291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • West, Carol Taylor

Abstract

Panel data on regional employment forecasts from structural equation econometric models and time-series models are used to examine whether accuracy of the forecasts can be predicted, both absolutely and relatively. Specification of accuracy includes the time forecast was made, forecast horizon, and regional economic/demographic characteristics. The estimated model is able to predict accuracy of each forecast set at high step lengths but is less successful at low step lengths and is not successful at all in predicting relative accuracy. Regional characteristics are significant determinants of accuracy for both sets of forecasts, but the significant characteristics differ across methodologies and step lengths.

Suggested Citation

  • West, Carol Taylor, 2003. "Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:43291
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.43291
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/43291/files/WEST%202%20JAAE%20SUPPLEMENT%202003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.43291?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence R. Klein, 1969. "The Specification Of Regional Econometric Models," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 105-116, January.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott, 1989. "Combining forecasts: The end of the beginning or the beginning of the end?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 585-588.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1, March.
    5. William G. Tomek, 1993. "Confirmation and Replication in Empirical Econometrics: A Step Toward Improved Scholarship," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 75(Special_I), pages 6-14.
    6. Glennon, Dennis & Lane, Julia & Johnson, Stanley, 1987. "Regional econometric models that reflect labor market relations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 299-312.
    7. Coomes, Paul A., 1992. "A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 473-481, March.
    8. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    9. Taylor, Carol A. & Theil, Henri, 1988. "Modeling the accuracy of certain regional predictions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 453-462, November.
    10. Hatanaka, Michio, 1975. "The Underestimation of Variations in the Forecast Series: A Note," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 151-160, February.
    11. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
    12. Friedman, Milton & Schwartz, Anna J, 1991. "Alternative Approaches to Analyzing Economic Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 39-49, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 305-321, August.
    3. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
    3. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Carol Taylor West, 1995. "Regional Economic Forecasting: Keeping the Crystal Ball Rolling," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 18(2), pages 195-200, April.
    5. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
    6. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    7. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008. "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 385-402, April.
    8. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Regional economic forecasting: state-of-the-art methodology and future challenges," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 218-231.
    10. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 1053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. James Koch, 2006. "Public Investment in University Distance Learning Programs: Some Performance-Based Evidence," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 23-32, March.
    12. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 0229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Joutz, Fred & Stekler, H. O., 2000. "An evaluation of the predictions of the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 17-38.
    15. Roberto Tinajero & Thomas M. Fullerton & Lawrence Waldman, 2005. "Regional econometric income forecast accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 325-333.
    16. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Paul M. Beaumont, 1983. "Wage Rate Specfication in Regional and Interregional Econometric Models," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 8(1), pages 75-83, June.
    20. Brave, Scott A. & Gascon, Charles & Kluender, William & Walstrum, Thomas, 2021. "Predicting benchmarked US state employment data in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1261-1275.
    21. Karel Janda, 2019. "Earnings Stability and Peer Company Selection for Multiple Based Indirect Valuation," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(1), pages 37-75, February.
    22. George S. Tavlas, 2015. "In Old Chicago: Simons, Friedman, and the Development of Monetary‐Policy Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 99-121, February.
    23. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    24. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
    25. Armstrong, J. Scott & Green, Kesten C. & Graefe, Andreas, 2015. "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1717-1731.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:43291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.