IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/joaaec/45534.html

El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Kelley, Brian W.

Abstract

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.

Suggested Citation

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008. "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(01), pages 1-18, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45534
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.45534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/45534/files/jaae-40-01-385.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.45534?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-383, June.
    3. Christ, Carl F, 1975. "Judging the Performance of Econometric Models of the U.S. Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(1), pages 54-74, February.
    4. Gatzlaff Dean H. & Ling David C., 1994. "Measuring Changes in Local House Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Alternative Methodologies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 221-244, March.
    5. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
    6. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    7. Patric H. Hendershott & John C. Weicher, 2002. "Forecasting Housing Markets: Lessons Learned," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
    8. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
    9. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    10. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. West, Kenneth D & McCracken, Michael W, 1998. "Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 817-840, November.
    2. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
    4. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
    7. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. McCracken, Michael W., 2007. "Asymptotics for out of sample tests of Granger causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 719-752, October.
    10. John W. Freebairn, 1975. "Forecasting For Australian Agriculture," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 154-174, December.
    11. Kyriazakou, Eleni & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2017. "Causality analysis of the Canadian city house price indices: A cross-sample validation approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 42-52.
    12. repec:rre:publsh:v:33:y:2003:i:1:p:85-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Sousa, Ricardo M. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Predicting asset returns in the BRICS: The role of macroeconomic and fundamental predictors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-143.
    14. Mr. Martin Mühleisen & Ms. Kornelia Krajnyak & Mr. Stephan Danninger & Mr. David Hauner & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2005. "How Do Canadian Budget Forecasts Compare with Those of Other Industrial Countries?," IMF Working Papers 2005/066, International Monetary Fund.
    15. McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    16. Parigi, Giuseppe & Golinelli, Roberto, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. West, Carol Taylor, 2003. "Structural Regional Factors that Determine Absolute and Relative Accuracy of U.S. Regional Labor Market Forecasts," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 35(Supplemen), pages 1-15.
    18. Granziera, Eleonora & Hubrich, Kirstin & Moon, Hyungsik Roger, 2014. "A predictability test for a small number of nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 174-185.
    19. Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1991. "Comparing predictive accuracy I: an asymptotic test," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 52, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    20. Victor Zarnowitz, 1982. "The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys," NBER Working Papers 1053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Karine Bouthevillain, 1993. "La prévision macro-économique : précision relative et consensus," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 108(2), pages 97-126.
    22. Jeffrey S. Racine & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2012. "Data-Driven Model Evaluation: A Test for Revealed Performance," Department of Economics Working Papers 2012-13, McMaster University.
    23. Fang, Yue, 2003. "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 87-94.
    24. Gelper, Sarah & Croux, Christophe, 2007. "Multivariate out-of-sample tests for Granger causality," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3319-3329, April.
    25. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators under Real-Time Condition," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 54(4), pages 293-318.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45534. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/saeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.