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El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Kelley, Brian W.

There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the accuracy of regional housing sector forecasts. Much of the recent analysis conducted for this topic is developed for housing starts and indicates a relatively poor track record. This study examines residential real estate forecasts previously published for El Paso, TX using a structural econometric model. Model coverage is much broader than just starts. Similar to earlier studies, the previously published econometric predictions frequently do not fare very well against the selected random walk benchmarks utilized for the various series under consideration.

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File URL: http://purl.umn.edu/45534
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Article provided by Southern Agricultural Economics Association in its journal Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 01 (April)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:45534
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.saea.org/jaae/jaae.htm
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  1. Victor Zarnowitz, 1967. "An Appraisal of Short-Term Economic Forecasts," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn67-1.
  2. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  3. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
  4. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  5. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  6. Gatzlaff Dean H. & Ling David C., 1994. "Measuring Changes in Local House Prices: An Empirical Investigation of Alternative Methodologies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 221-244, March.
  7. West, Carol T., 2003. "The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 33(1), pages 85-103.
  8. Kolb, R. A. & Stekler, H. O., 1993. "Are economic forecasts significantly better than naive predictions? An appropriate test," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 117-120, April.
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