IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy


  • Arnold Cote, K. Nicole
  • Smith, Wm. Doyle
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.


The objective of this study is to estimate the accuracy and/or reliability of alternative methods of forecasting property valuations of non-residential real commercial and industrial property in El Paso to improve municipal revenue forecasting. This study seeks to identify and evaluate four econometric and statistical alternatives to present forecasting practices for nonresidential property valuation forecasts: (1) a traditional income elasticity method, (2) a regional structural econometric model, (3) a statistical ARIMA method, and (4) trend analysis. In order to evaluate the four models, ex ante forecast simulations are created for each modeling approach and then compared to random walk and random walk with drift models for both commercial and industrial property values. Results indicate that the random walk with drift model outperformed all four models for both commercial and industrial property values. In addition, results also indicate that the random walk model outperformed all four models for industrial property values.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32116

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
    2. Fullerton, Thomas M. & Kelley, Brian W., 2008. "El Paso Housing Sector Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 385-402, April.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas & Barraza de Anda, Martha, 2008. "Borderplex Population Modeling," MPRA Paper 7032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    5. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
    6. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    7. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Arturo Elias, 2004. "Short-Term Water Consumption Dynamics in El Paso, Texas," Others 0410005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fullerton, Thomas & Aragones-Zamudio, Victor, 2006. "El Paso Property Tax Abatement Ineffectiveness," MPRA Paper 626, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2006.
    9. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    10. Terri Erickson Sexton & Richard J. Sexton, 1986. "Re-Evaluating the Income Elasticity of the Property Tax Base," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 62(2), pages 182-191.
    11. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Roy H. Webb, 1984. "Vector autoregressions as a tool for forecast evaluations," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 70(Jan), pages 3-11.
    13. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
    14. Peter Kennedy, 2003. "A Guide to Econometrics, 5th Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 5, volume 1, number 026261183x, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas M. Fullerton & Arturo Bujanda, 2018. "Commercial property values in a border metropolitan economy," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 337-360, August.

    More about this item


    Non-residential property valuation forecasts; regional economics; applied econometrics;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:32116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.