IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic


  • De Leon, Marycruz
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Kelley, Brian W.


Budget constraints are forcing many governments to consider implementing tolls as a means for financing bridge and road expenditures. Newly available time series data make it possible to analyze the impacts of toll variations and international business cycle fluctuations on cross-border bridge traffic between El Paso and Ciudad Juarez. Parameter estimation is carried out using a linear transfer function ARIMA methodology. Price elasticities of demand are similar to those reported for other regional economies, but out-of-sample forecasting results are mixed.

Suggested Citation

  • De Leon, Marycruz & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Kelley, Brian W., 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, and Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," MPRA Paper 19861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19861

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
    2. Braid, Ralph M., 1996. "Peak-Load Pricing of a Transportation Route with an Unpriced Substitute," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 179-197, September.
    3. Brownstone, David & Ghosh, Arindam & Golob, Thomas F. & Kazimi, Camilla & Van Amelsfort, Dirk, 2003. "Drivers' willingness-to-pay to reduce travel time: evidence from the San Diego I-15 congestion pricing project," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 373-387, May.
    4. Anna Matas & José-Luis Raymond, 2002. "The demand elasticity on tolled motorways," Working Papers wp0203, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, EconWPA.
    7. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    8. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    9. Podgorski, Kaethe V. & Kockelman, Kara M., 2006. "Public perceptions of toll roads: A survey of the Texas perspective," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 888-902, December.
    10. Hanna Armelius, 2005. "An Integrated Approach to Urban Road Pricing," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 39(1), pages 75-92, January.
    11. Ferrari, Paolo, 2002. "Road network toll pricing and social welfare," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 471-483, June.
    12. Verhoef, Erik & Nijkamp, Peter & Rietveld, Piet, 1996. "Second-Best Congestion Pricing: The Case of an Untolled Alternative," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 279-302, November.
    13. Becky P Y Loo, 2003. "Tunnel traffic and toll elasticities in Hong Kong: some recent evidence for international comparisons," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(2), pages 249-276, February.
    14. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    15. Yildirim, Mehmet Bayram & Hearn, Donald W., 2005. "A first best toll pricing framework for variable demand traffic assignment problems," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 659-678, September.
    16. Lave, Charles, 1994. "The demand curve under road pricing and the problem of political feasibility," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 83-91, March.
    17. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
    18. Lave, Charles, 1994. "The Demand Curve Under Road Pricing and the Problem of Political Feasibility," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt5165m7jr, University of California Transportation Center.
    19. Olszewski, Piotr & Xie, Litian, 2005. "Modelling the effects of road pricing on traffic in Singapore," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(7-9), pages 755-772.
    20. Bonsall, Peter & Shires, Jeremy & Maule, John & Matthews, Bryan & Beale, Jo, 2007. "Responses to complex pricing signals: Theory, evidence and implications for road pricing," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 672-683, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M. Jr & Walke, Adam G., 2012. "Border Zone Mass Transit Demand in Brownsville and Laredo," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 51(2).
    2. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    3. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 305-321, August.
    4. Michael J. Pisani & Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr., 2013. "Microenterprise Peso Acceptance in El Paso, Texas," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 75-94, November.
    5. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Munoz Sapien, Gabriel & Barraza de Anda, Martha P. & Dominguez Ruvalcaba, Lisbeily, 2011. "Dinámica del Consumo de Gasolina en Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua
      [Gasoline Consumption Dynamics in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua]
      ," MPRA Paper 46853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2012.
    6. Charles, Jacky S. & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2012. "An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals to the Bahamas," MPRA Paper 43064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2014. "Homicides, exchange rates, and northern border retail activity in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-647, November.
    8. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    9. Juan Gomez & José Manuel Vassallo & Israel Herraiz, 2016. "Explaining light vehicle demand evolution in interurban toll roads: a dynamic panel data analysis in Spain," Transportation, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 677-703, July.

    More about this item


    Bridge Traffic; Tolls; Applied Econometrics; Mexico Border;

    JEL classification:

    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:19861. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.