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Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model

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  • Thomas M. Fullerton JR.

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Texas at El Paso, tomf@utep.edu)

Abstract

Historically linked by geography, trade, and culture, border areas of the United States and Mexico are becoming even more closely integrated by the elimination of trade and investment barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Greater economic integration raises the question of whether the traditional approach to regional econometric modeling is applicable to border metropolitan areas. This article examines this issue with respect to the El Paso-Ciudad Juárez borderplex by specifying and estimating an econometric model and then simulating it under different currency conditions. Simulation output from the model is also compared and contrasted with extrapolations from a Bayesian vector autoregressive model. Results indicate that the traditional framework provides a viable means for analyzing international border region business trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:inrsre:v:24:y:2001:i:2:p:245-260
    DOI: 10.1177/016001701761013141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    13. J. P. Neary (ed.), 1995. "International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 575.
    14. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "International Trade and Investment," Urban/Regional 0409010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    17. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Chul Hwan Kim, 1995. "Regional Forecasting Analysis for the Kyunggi Province," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 147-162.
    19. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marcycruz de Leon & Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Brian W Kelly, 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," Articles, International Journal of Transport Economics, vol. 36(2).
    2. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
    3. Thomas Fullerton & David Schauer, 2001. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 471-478, November.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton & Elías D. Saenz-Rojo & Adam G. Walke, 2017. "Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2910-2921, June.
    5. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    6. Kincal, Gokce & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Holcomb, James H. & Barraza de Anda, Martha P., 2010. "Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market," MPRA Paper 29095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    7. Thomas Fullerton, Jr. & Juan Luevano & Carol West, 2000. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Journal of Housing Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 109-120, January.
    8. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
    12. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ceballos, Alejandro & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "Short-Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand," MPRA Paper 78259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2015.
    13. repec:rre:publsh:v:40:y:2010:i:2:p:181-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 305-321, August.
    15. Adam G. Walke & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2019. "Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 179-191, June.
    16. Fullerton & E. Pallarez & Walke, 2015. "Downtown parking meter demand in a border metropolitan economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(48), pages 5121-5130, October.
    17. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Arturo Elias, 2004. "Short-Term Water Consumption Dynamics in El Paso, Texas," Others 0410005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2014. "Homicides, exchange rates, and northern border retail activity in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-647, November.
    19. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Empirical Evidence Regarding El Paso Property Tax Abatements: 1988-2001," Public Economics 0405007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Fullerton, T.M., 2007. "Empirical Evidence Regarding 9/11 Impacts on the Borderplex Economy," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 51-64.
    21. Timothy C. Ford & Brian Logan & Jennifer Logan, 2009. "NAFTA or Nada? Trade's Impact on U.S. Border Retailers," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 260-286, June.
    22. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
    23. Thomas M. Fullerton & Adam G. Walke, 2019. "Cross-Border Shopping and Employment Patterns in the Southwestern United States," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-19, October.
    24. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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