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Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Roberto Tinajero

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Increases in international merchandise trade plus growth in the northern Mexico maquiladora sector have caused the volume of cargo vehicle flows through border metropolitan areas to expand in recent decades. To examine whether the trends associated with these developments can be successfully modeled, short-term time series characteristics of cross- border cargo vehicle through El Paso, Texas are analyzed. Univariate and transfer function ARIMA methodologies are employed using data from January 1980 through December 1999. Maquiladora employment in Ciudad Juarez, nonagricultural employment in El Paso, the real exchange rate, industrial activity in Mexico, and U.S. industrial activity are found to influence monthly changes in border region cargo vehicle flows.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0405006.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 21 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0405006
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 27
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  1. Tiao, George C & Tsay, Ruey S, 1983. "Multiple Time Series Modeling and Extended Sample Cross-Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-56, January.
  2. Lucinda Vargas, 1999. "NAFTA's first five years (part 1)," Business Frontier, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  3. Thomas Fullerton & W. Sawyer & Richard Sprinkle, 1999. "Latin American trade elasticities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 143-156, June.
  4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, EconWPA.
  5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, EconWPA.
  6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
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