Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows
Increases in international merchandise trade plus growth in the northern Mexico maquiladora sector have caused the volume of cargo vehicle flows through border metropolitan areas to expand in recent decades. To examine whether the trends associated with these developments can be successfully modeled, short-term time series characteristics of cross- border cargo vehicle through El Paso, Texas are analyzed. Univariate and transfer function ARIMA methodologies are employed using data from January 1980 through December 1999. Maquiladora employment in Ciudad Juarez, nonagricultural employment in El Paso, the real exchange rate, industrial activity in Mexico, and U.S. industrial activity are found to influence monthly changes in border region cargo vehicle flows.
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