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Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Roberto Tinajero

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

Increases in international merchandise trade plus growth in the northern Mexico maquiladora sector have caused the volume of cargo vehicle flows through border metropolitan areas to expand in recent decades. To examine whether the trends associated with these developments can be successfully modeled, short-term time series characteristics of cross- border cargo vehicle through El Paso, Texas are analyzed. Univariate and transfer function ARIMA methodologies are employed using data from January 1980 through December 1999. Maquiladora employment in Ciudad Juarez, nonagricultural employment in El Paso, the real exchange rate, industrial activity in Mexico, and U.S. industrial activity are found to influence monthly changes in border region cargo vehicle flows.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0405006
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 27
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, EconWPA.
    3. Lucinda Vargas, 1999. "NAFTA's first five years (part 1)," Business Frontier, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Tiao, George C & Tsay, Ruey S, 1983. "Multiple Time Series Modeling and Extended Sample Cross-Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(1), pages 43-56, January.
    5. Thomas Fullerton & W. Sawyer & Richard Sprinkle, 1999. "Latin American trade elasticities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 143-156, June.
    6. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    2. Thomas Fullerton & Roberto Tinajero & Martha Barraza de Anda, 2006. "Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 467-479, December.
    3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Richard L Sprinkle & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "El Paso Customs District Cross-Border Trade Flows," International Trade 0406001, EconWPA.
    4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
    5. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Border economics; time series econometrics; cargo vehicles;

    JEL classification:

    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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