IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/71141.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Walke, Adam G.
  • Villavicencio, Diana

Abstract

An econometric model using time series analysis techniques is employed to model and forecast population changes in Doña Ana County, New Mexico. The model focuses on the interplay between economic and demographic variables. Individual, cointegrated equations are generated to account for the components of population change - births, deaths, net domestic and net international migration. Birth and death equations prove easier to model because of stable changes from period to period in relation to income levels and national demographic trends. Net migration equations were more difficult to model as economic conditions, specifically labor market conditions, influence changes over time. Predefined exogenous variables are used to generate out-of-sample simulations for the individual components of population change. Using those results, total population projections are estimated until the year 2018. Doña Ana County is projected to witness a slowdown in population growth, primarily as a consequence of increased domestic out-migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71141
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/71141/1/MPRA_paper_71141.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
    2. Brian Cushing & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Crossing boundaries and borders: Regional science advances in migration modelling," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Raymond J. G. M. Florax & David A. Plane (ed.), Fifty Years of Regional Science, pages 317-338, Springer.
    3. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    4. Adam Isen & Betsey Stevenson, 2010. "Women's Education and Family Behavior: Trends in Marriage, Divorce and Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 107-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ramirez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas," MPRA Paper 59588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2013.
    6. Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
    7. Smith, Stanley K., 1997. "Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 557-565, December.
    8. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Ralph Rotte & Michael Vogler, 2000. "The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(3), pages 485-508.
    10. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    12. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    13. Cebula, Richard J. & Alexander, Gigi M., 2006. "Determinants of Net Interstate Migration, 2000-2004," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 36(2), pages 1-8.
    14. Fullerton, Thomas & Barraza de Anda, Martha, 2008. "Borderplex Population Modeling," MPRA Paper 7032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Xiao, Ni & Zarnikau, Jay & Damien, Paul, 2007. "Testing functional forms in energy modeling: An application of the Bayesian approach to U.S. electricity demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 158-166, March.
    16. Richard J. Cebula & J. R. Clark, 2013. "An extension of the Tiebout hypothesis of voting with one's feet: the Medicaid magnet hypothesis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(32), pages 4575-4583, November.
    17. Stark, Oded & Taylor, J Edward, 1991. "Migration Incentives, Migration Types: The Role of Relative Deprivation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(408), pages 1163-1178, September.
    18. Jeff Tayman & David Swanson, 1996. "On the utility of population forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 33(4), pages 523-528, November.
    19. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    20. Richard J. Cebula & J.R. Clark, 2011. "Migration, Economic Freedom, and Personal Freedom: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 27(Fall 2011), pages 43-62.
    21. Jaewon Lim, 2011. "Does wage differential driven migration continue to exist? Tests on the role of regional economic structure in wage differential driven migration," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(1), pages 213-233, August.
    22. Ruben Hernandez-Murillo & Lesli S. Ott & Michael T. Owyang & Denise Whalen, 2011. "Patterns of interstate migration in the United States from the survey of income and program participation," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 169-186.
    23. Thomas R. Plaut, 1981. "An Econometric Model for Forecasting Regional Population Growth," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 6(1), pages 53-70, April.
    24. repec:mpr:mprres:6984 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Berg, Andreas & Meyer, Renate & Yu, Jun, 2004. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-120, January.
    26. Fariastuti Djafar, 2012. "Dynamics of Push and Pull Factors of Migrant Workers in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesian Workers in Malaysia," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 4(12), pages 703-711.
    27. Ilse Ruyssen & Gerdie Everaert & Glenn Rayp, 2014. "Determinants and dynamics of migration to OECD countries in a three-dimensional panel framework," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 175-197, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ramirez, David A. & Walke, Adam G., 2013. "An Econometric Analysis of Population Change in Arkansas," MPRA Paper 59588, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Nov 2013.
    2. Tilman Brück & Kai M. Dunker & Neil T. N. Ferguson & Aline Meysonnat & Eleonora Nillesen, 2018. "Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks," HiCN Working Papers 277, Households in Conflict Network.
    3. Mohamed Arouri & Nguyen Viet Cuong, 2020. "Wealth inequality and inter-governorate migration: Evidence from Egypt," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 20(2), pages 119-139, April.
    4. Amjad Ali & Nooreen Mujahid & Yahya Rashid & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2015. "Human Capital Outflow and Economic Misery: Fresh Evidence for Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 124(3), pages 747-764, December.
    5. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    6. Brück, Tilman & Dunker, Kai M. & Ferguson, Neil T.N. & Meysonnat, Aline & Nillesen, Eleonora, 2018. "Determinants and Dynamics of Forced Migration to Europe: Evidence from a 3-D Model of Flows and Stocks," IZA Discussion Papers 11834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    8. Daniel Meierrieks & Laura Renner, 2017. "Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(3), pages 977-1005, July.
    9. Thomas M. Fullerton & Felipe I. Galan & Wm. Doyle Smith & Adam G. Walke, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of Migratory Flows to the United States," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 1(2), pages 11-20, November.
    10. Koji Murayama & Jun Nagayasu & Lamia Bazzaoui, 2022. "Spatial Dependence, Social Networks, and Economic Structures in Japanese Regional Labor Migration," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-31, February.
    11. Rodríguez-Montemayor, Eduardo & García, Pablo M., 2009. "A Primer of International Migration: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2544, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Elena Vitalievna, Lebedeva, 2007. "Determinants of International Migration and Remittances," MPRA Paper 104789, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    13. Michael A. Clemens, 2014. "Does development reduce migration?," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 6, pages 152-185, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Gabriele Restelli, 2023. "Development and International Migration: The Effect of Income on Regular and Irregular Migration Intentions to Europe," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 135-174, March.
    15. Yilmaz, Binhan Elif, 2004. "The Determinants of Migration: A Study of Sending and Destination Perspective," MPRA Paper 104552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Iva Vuksanović Herceg Tomislav Herceg Lorena Škuflić, 2020. "New EU member states’ emigration: Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 129-140, November.
    17. Michel Beine & Simone Bertoli & Jesús Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2016. "A Practitioners’ Guide to Gravity Models of International Migration," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(4), pages 496-512, April.
    18. Bencek, David & Schneiderheinze, Claas, 2020. "Higher economic growth in poor countries, lower migration flows to the OECD: Revisiting the migration hump with panel data," Kiel Working Papers 2145, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), revised 2020.
    19. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.
    20. Aldashev, Alisher & Dietz, Barbara, 2011. "Determinants of internal migration in Kazakhstan," MPRA Paper 34922, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Population Economics; Regional Economics; Applied Econometrics; Migration; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71141. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.