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New EU member states’ emigration: Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates

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  • Iva Vuksanović Herceg Tomislav Herceg Lorena Škuflić

    (University of Belgrade Faculty of Economics, Belgrade, SERBIA. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia. Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia.)

Abstract

Unlike the old member states that compensate the negative net birth rate with immigration, the new EU member states face both migrational and natural demographic decline. In the last decade, poor level of economic development as well as the accession to the EU encouraged net emigration from the new member states. Panel data for the 12 new member states for the 2007 - 2016 period were used to determine how the length of membership and GDP per capita trailing behind the EU average affect the proportion of the net emigration. It has been shown that on average a country has to reach at least 85 percent of the average EU GDP p.c. (measured in PPS) to prevent emigration, but this level increases with each year of membership by 1.37 percentage points. JEL Classification: O15, P23

Suggested Citation

  • Iva Vuksanović Herceg Tomislav Herceg Lorena Škuflić, 2020. "New EU member states’ emigration: Projections for future and lessons for the new EU candidates," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 23(2), pages 129-140, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:zag:zirebs:v:23:y:2020:i:2:p:129-140
    DOI: 10.2478/zireb-2020-0017
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P23 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population

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