IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpur/0405006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

Historically linked by geography, trade, and culture, border areas of the United States and Mexico are becoming even more closely integrated by the elimination of trade and investment barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Greater economic integration raises the question of whether the traditional approach to regional econometric modeling is applicable to border metropolitan areas. This paper examines this issue with respect to the El Paso - Ciudad Juarez borderplex by specifying and estimating an econometric model and then simulating it under different currency conditions. Simulation output from the model is then compared and contrasted with extroplations from a Bayesian vector autoregression model. Results indicate that the traditional model provides a viable means for analyzing international border region business trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," Urban/Regional 0405006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0405006
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/urb/papers/0405/0405006.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/urb/papers/0405/0405006.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/urb/papers/0405/0405006.doc.gz
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
    4. Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
    5. Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Localization Economies, Vertical Organization, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1266-1278, December.
    6. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
    7. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Rational Reactions to Temporary Sales Tax Legislation," Public Economics 0408004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    11. Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
    12. J. P. Neary (ed.), 1995. "International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 575, June.
    13. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "International Trade and Investment," Urban/Regional 0409010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    16. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcycruz de Leon & Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Brian W Kelly, 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," Articles, International Journal of Transport Economics, vol. 36(2).
    2. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
    3. Thomas Fullerton & David Schauer, 2001. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 471-478, November.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton & Elías D. Saenz-Rojo & Adam G. Walke, 2017. "Yield spreads, currency movements, and recession predictability for southern border economies in the United States," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(30), pages 2910-2921, June.
    5. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    6. Kincal, Gokce & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Holcomb, James H. & Barraza de Anda, Martha P., 2010. "Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market," MPRA Paper 29095, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    7. Pedro Niño & Roberto Coronado & Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2015. "Cross-border homicide impacts on economic activity in El Paso," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1543-1559, December.
    8. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.
    11. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Ceballos, Alejandro & Walke, Adam G., 2015. "Short-Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand," MPRA Paper 78259, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Aug 2015.
    12. Seung, Chang K. & Ahn, Sung K., 2010. "Forecasting Industry Employment for a Resource-Based Economy Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 40(2), pages 181-196.
    13. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 305-321, August.
    14. Adam G. Walke & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2019. "Metropolitan Hotel Sector Forecast Accuracy in El Paso," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(2), pages 179-191, June.
    15. Fullerton & E. Pallarez & Walke, 2015. "Downtown parking meter demand in a border metropolitan economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(48), pages 5121-5130, October.
    16. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Arturo Elias, 2004. "Short-Term Water Consumption Dynamics in El Paso, Texas," Others 0410005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Thomas Fullerton & Adam Walke, 2014. "Homicides, exchange rates, and northern border retail activity in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 53(3), pages 631-647, November.
    18. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Empirical Evidence Regarding El Paso Property Tax Abatements: 1988-2001," Public Economics 0405007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Fullerton, T.M., 2007. "Empirical Evidence Regarding 9/11 Impacts on the Borderplex Economy," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 51-64.
    20. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Timothy C. Ford & Brian Logan & Jennifer Logan, 2009. "NAFTA or Nada? Trade's Impact on U.S. Border Retailers," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 260-286, June.
    22. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Walke, Adam G. & Villavicencio, Diana, 2015. "An Econometric Approach for Modeling Population Change in Doña Ana County, New Mexico," MPRA Paper 71141, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2015.
    23. Thomas M. Fullerton & Adam G. Walke, 2019. "Cross-Border Shopping and Employment Patterns in the Southwestern United States," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(03), pages 1-19, October.
    24. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
    4. Mark Doms & Norman J. Morin, 2004. "Consumer sentiment, the economy, and the news media," Working Paper Series 2004-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    6. Bradley T. Ewing & Mark A. Thompson, 2018. "Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 203-213, June.
    7. Pagan, Jose A. & Soydemir, Gokce A., 2001. "Response asymmetries in the Latin American equity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 175-185.
    8. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    9. Banu Demirhan, 2016. "Financial Development and Investment Amount Nexus: A Case Study of Turkey," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 6(3), pages 127-134, March.
    10. Jacques Miniane & John H. Rogers, 2007. "Capital Controls and the International Transmission of U.S. Money Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(5), pages 1003-1035, August.
    11. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    12. Maria Björklund & Mikael Carlsson & Oskar Nordström Skans, 2019. "Fixed-Wage Contracts and Monetary Non-neutrality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 171-192, April.
    13. Brüggemann, Ralf & Jentsch, Carsten & Trenkler, Carsten, 2016. "Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 69-85.
    14. Gediminas Adomavicius & Jesse Bockstedt & Alok Gupta, 2012. "Modeling Supply-Side Dynamics of IT Components, Products, and Infrastructure: An Empirical Analysis Using Vector Autoregression," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 397-417, June.
    15. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2004. "Comment on Gali and Rabanal's \\"Technology shocks and aggregate fluctuations: how well does the RBC model fit postwar U.S. data?\\"," Staff Report 338, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    17. Bae, Sang-Kun & Jensen, Mark J. & Murdock, Scott G., 2005. "Long-run neutrality in a fractionally integrated model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 257-274, June.
    18. Leu, Shawn Chen-Yu, 2011. "A New Keynesian SVAR model of the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 157-168.
    19. H. Atesoglu & Donald Dutkowsky, 1992. "The changing effect of money on aggregate output in the u.s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(2), pages 221-236, June.
    20. Barber, Brad M. & Click, Reid W. & Darrough, Masako N., 1999. "The impact of shocks to exchange rates and oil prices on U.S. sales of American and Japanese automakers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 57-93, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Border economics; regional econometrics; currency devaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0405006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: EconWPA (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.