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Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Historically linked by geography, trade, and culture, border areas of the United States and Mexico are becoming even more closely integrated by the elimination of trade and investment barriers under the North American Free Trade Agreement. Greater economic integration raises the question of whether the traditional approach to regional econometric modeling is applicable to border metropolitan areas. This paper examines this issue with respect to the El Paso - Ciudad Juarez borderplex by specifying and estimating an econometric model and then simulating it under different currency conditions. Simulation output from the model is then compared and contrasted with extroplations from a Bayesian vector autoregression model. Results indicate that the traditional model provides a viable means for analyzing international border region business trends.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0405006.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 25 May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0405006
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 19
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, EconWPA.
  2. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
  3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "International Trade and Investment," Urban/Regional 0409010, EconWPA.
  4. Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer & David W. Wilcox, 1991. "Does consumer sentiment affect household spending? If so why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 168, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
  7. J. P. Neary (ed.), 1995. "International Trade," Books, Edward Elgar, volume 0, number 575.
  8. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  9. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Rational Reactions to Temporary Sales Tax Legislation," Public Economics 0408004, EconWPA.
  10. Pflaumer, Peter, 1992. "Forecasting US population totals with the Box-Jenkins approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 329-338, November.
  11. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
  12. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Eiichi Araki, 2004. "New Directions in Latin American Macroeconometrics," Development and Comp Systems 0408002, EconWPA.
  13. Victor Zarnowitz & Louis A. Lambros, 1983. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," NBER Working Papers 1171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
  15. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Hanson, Gordon H, 1996. "Localization Economies, Vertical Organization, and Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1266-78, December.
  17. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  18. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-73, Sept.-Oct.
  19. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
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