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Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts

  • Carol Taylor West

    (University of Florida)

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Florida)

This article provides a systematic review of regional employment forecasts in Florida and 19 metropolitan statistical areas. One-quarter- ahead to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are analyzed for a seven-year period that includes a complete business cycle. Structural econometric model forecasts are shown to compare favorably to univariate benchmark extrapolations. Strucutral model dependency on macroeconometric model forecast inputs is not found to hamper regional predictive accuracy.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404009.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: 21 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404009
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 16
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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  1. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
  2. George I. Treyz & Dan S. Rickman & Gang Shao, 1991. "The REMI Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 14(3), pages 221-253, December.
  3. Glennon, Dennis & Lane, Julia & Johnson, Stanley, 1987. "Regional econometric models that reflect labor market relations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 299-312.
  4. Paul A. Anderson, 1979. "Help for the regional economic forecaster: vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum.
  5. Nelson, Charles R, 1972. "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 902-17, December.
  6. Weller, Barry R., 1989. "National indicator series as quantitative predictors of small region monthly employment levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-247.
  7. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  8. Weller, Barry R & Kurre, James A, 1987. "Applicability of the Transfer Function Approach to Forecasting Employment Levels in Small Regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 34-43, March.
  9. Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
  10. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
  11. Ahlburg, Dennis A. & Land, Kenneth C., 1992. "Population forecasting: Guest editors' introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 289-299, November.
  12. Taylor, Carol A., 1982. "Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas : An analysis of alternative methodologies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 425-448, August.
  13. Coomes, Paul A., 1992. "A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 473-481, March.
  14. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
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