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Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • Carol Taylor West

    (University of Florida)

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

This article provides a systematic review of regional employment forecasts in Florida and 19 metropolitan statistical areas. One-quarter- ahead to ten-quarter-ahead forecasts are analyzed for a seven-year period that includes a complete business cycle. Structural econometric model forecasts are shown to compare favorably to univariate benchmark extrapolations. Strucutral model dependency on macroeconometric model forecast inputs is not found to hamper regional predictive accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Fullerton, Thomas Jr., 1989. "A composite approach to forecasting state government revenues: Case study of the Idaho sales tax," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 373-380.
    4. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
    5. Taylor, Carol A., 1982. "Econometric modeling of urban and other substate areas : An analysis of alternative methodologies," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 425-448, August.
    6. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
    7. Weller, Barry R & Kurre, James A, 1987. "Applicability of the Transfer Function Approach to Forecasting Employment Levels in Small Regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 34-43, March.
    8. Weller, Barry R., 1989. "National indicator series as quantitative predictors of small region monthly employment levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-247.
    9. Glennon, Dennis & Lane, Julia & Johnson, Stanley, 1987. "Regional econometric models that reflect labor market relations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 299-312.
    10. Stephen K. McNees, 1988. "How accurate are macroeconomic forecasts?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 15-36.
    11. Coomes, Paul A., 1992. "A Kalman filter formulation for noisy regional job data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 473-481, March.
    12. Paul A. Anderson, 1979. "Help for the regional economic forecaster: vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum.
    13. Nelson, Charles R, 1972. "The Prediction Performance of the FRB-MIT-PENN Model of the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(5), pages 902-917, December.
    14. Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Carol T. West & M. S. Deepak, 2001. "Policy Sensitivity in Dynamic Optimization Models: A Study Remembering William Alonso’s Regional Modeling Perspectives," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(3), pages 302-327, July.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    3. West, Carol T., 2003. "The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 33(1), pages 85-103.
    4. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Regional economic forecasting: state-of-the-art methodology and future challenges," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 218-231.
    6. Eff, E. Anthon, 1998. "An Improved Technique for Obtaining Current Sub-state Income Estimates," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(2), pages 91-103, Fall.
    7. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, EconWPA.
    8. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends," Urban/Regional 0407006, EconWPA.
    9. Federico Lampis, 2016. "Forecasting the sectoral GVA of a small Spanish region," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 38-44.
    10. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional econometrics; forecast accuracy assessment;

    JEL classification:

    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

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