IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpur/0501005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

Abstract

El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico jointly comprise a large cross- border metropolitan economy. El Paso is an important port-of-entry for international cargo, as well as a key transit point for regional trade flows in the southwestern United States. Reflective of those traits, the borderplex econometric forecasting system includes two blocks of transportation equations. One sub-system models northbound surface traffic across the international bridges from Ciudad Juarez. The other deals with passenger, cargo, and mail flows at El Paso International Airport. To gauge model reliability, an analysis of borderplex transportation variable forecast accuracy relative to a random walk benchmark is completed. Empirical evidence is mixed with respect to model precision for the 1998-2003 sample period for which data are currently available.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2005. "Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Urban/Regional 0501005, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0501005
    Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/urb/papers/0501/0501005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/urb/papers/0501/0501005.ps.gz
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/urb/papers/0501/0501005.doc.gz
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
    2. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    3. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, EconWPA.
    4. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
    5. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
    6. Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.
    7. Roberto Tinajero & Thomas M. Fullerton & Lawrence Waldman, 2005. "Regional econometric income forecast accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 325-333.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-117, May.
    9. Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
    10. Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
    11. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
    12. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, EconWPA.
    13. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, EconWPA.
    14. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
    15. Pia M. Orrenius & Keith R. Phillips & Benjamin Blackburn, 2001. "Beating border barriers in U.S.-Mexico trade," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1-8.
    16. Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
    17. Dennis, Nigel P.S, 2002. "Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 313-324.
    18. Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marcycruz de Leon & Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Brian W Kelly, 2009. "Tolls, Exchange Rates, And Borderplex International Bridge Traffic," Articles, International Journal of Transport Economics, vol. 36(2).
    2. Arnold Cote, K. Nicole & Smith, Wm. Doyle & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2010. "Municipal Non-Residential Real Property Valuation Forecast Accuracy," MPRA Paper 32116, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Feb 2011.
    3. Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2013. "Border Region Bridge and Air Transport Predictability," MPRA Paper 59583, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 11 Jul 2013.
    4. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Angel L. Molina Jr & Adam G. Walke, 2013. "Tolls, exchange rates, and northbound international bridge traffic from Mexico," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 305-321, August.
    5. Thomas Fullerton & Roberto Tinajero & Martha Barraza de Anda, 2006. "Short-Term Water Consumption Patterns in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(4), pages 467-479, December.
    6. Fullerton, T.M., 2007. "Empirical Evidence Regarding 9/11 Impacts on the Borderplex Economy," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 7(2), pages 51-64.
    7. Charles, Jacky S. & Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr., 2012. "An Error Correction Analysis of Visitor Arrivals to the Bahamas," MPRA Paper 43064, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & George Novela, 2010. "Metropolitan Maquiladora Econometric Forecast Accuracy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 124-140, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Econometric Forecasts; Transportation; Border Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0501005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.