Borderplex Bridge and Air Econometric Forecast Accuracy
El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico jointly comprise a large cross- border metropolitan economy. El Paso is an important port-of-entry for international cargo, as well as a key transit point for regional trade flows in the southwestern United States. Reflective of those traits, the borderplex econometric forecasting system includes two blocks of transportation equations. One sub-system models northbound surface traffic across the international bridges from Ciudad Juarez. The other deals with passenger, cargo, and mail flows at El Paso International Airport. To gauge model reliability, an analysis of borderplex transportation variable forecast accuracy relative to a random walk benchmark is completed. Empirical evidence is mixed with respect to model precision for the 1998-2003 sample period for which data are currently available.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Deirdre N. McCloskey & Stephen T. Ziliak, 1996. "The Standard Error of Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 97-114, March.
- Gonzalez, Pilar & Moral, Paz, 1995. "An analysis of the international tourism demand in Spain," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 233-251, June.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Roberto Tinajero, 2004. "Cross Border Cargo Vehicle Flows," International Trade 0405006, EconWPA.
- Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998.
"Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida,"
The Review of Regional Studies,
Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
- Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Carol T. West, 2004. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," Urban/Regional 0403004, EconWPA.
- Edward E. Leamer, 1982.
"Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
239, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Mankiw, N. Gregory & Campbell, John, 1987.
"Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations,"
3207697, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 111-117, May.
- John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1987. "Permanent and Transitory Components in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004.
"Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model,"
- Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
- Granger, Clive W J, 1996. "Can We Improve the Perceived Quality of Economic Forecasts?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 455-473, Sept.-Oct.
- Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
- Pia M. Orrenius & Keith R. Phillips & Benjamin Blackburn, 2001. "Beating border barriers in U.S.-Mexico trade," Southwest Economy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Sep, pages 1-8.
- Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Juan Alberto Luevano & Carol Taylor West, 2004. "Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404010, EconWPA.
- Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
- Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
- Roberto Tinajero & Thomas M. Fullerton & Lawrence Waldman, 2005. "Regional econometric income forecast accuracy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 325-333.
- Dennis, Nigel P.S, 2002. "Long-term route traffic forecasts and flight schedule pattern for a medium-sized European airport," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 313-324.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Currency Movements and International Border Crossings," Urban/Regional 0407008, EconWPA.
- Thomas M Fullerton Jr, 2004. "Cross Border Business Cycle (Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand," Urban/Regional 0407010, EconWPA.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0501005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.