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Accuracy of Regional Single-Family Housing Start Forecasts

  • Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Juan Alberto Luevano

    (University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Carol Taylor West

    (University of Florida)

Regional single-family housing start forecasts are used in numerous banking, government, public utility, and retail applications. Despite that, they have not been systematically examined for predictive accuracy. This article analyzes quarterly single-family housing start forecasts for Florida and its six largest metropolitan economies. The sample period covers 1985:1 through 1996:2 and includes a complete business cycle. In contrast to regional employment, the econometric housing activity forecasts do not fare well against univariate ARIMA and random walk benchmarks.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Urban/Regional with number 0404010.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 23 Apr 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpur:0404010
Note: Type of Document - doc; pages: 17
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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  1. Mizrach, Bruce, 1992. "The distribution of the Theil U-statistic in bivariate normal populations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 163-167, February.
  2. David G. Lenze, 2000. "Forecast Accuracy and Efficiency: An Evaluation of Ex Ante Substate Long-Term Forecasts," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 23(2), pages 201-226, April.
  3. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  4. Lester Hunt & Martin Snell, 1997. "Comparative Properties of Local Econometric Models in the UK," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 891-901.
  5. Ashley, Richard, 1988. "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 363-376.
  6. Carol Taylor West & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., 2004. "Assessing the Historical Accuracy of Regional Economic Forecasts," Urban/Regional 0404009, EconWPA.
  7. Fullerton, Jr., Thomas M. & Taylor West, Carol A., 1998. "Regional Econometric Housing Start Forecast Accuracy in Florida," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 28(3), pages 15-42, Winter.
  8. Stephen K. McNees, 1992. "How large are economic forecast errors?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 25-42.
  9. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
  10. Fullerton, Thomas Jr. & Laaksonen, Mika M. & West, Carol T., 2001. "Regional multi-family housing start forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 171-180.
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