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House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities

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  • Oliver Lerbs

Abstract

This paper employs panel data on 413 counties and cities over 2004-2009 to investigate the local supply of new single-family housing in Germany. Construction activity in local housing markets (measured by new housing permits related to the local housing stock) is modeled as a function of local home prices and new housing development costs, with the latter including local costs related to construction and local costs of vacant land. The results suggest the permit rate in a location to be positively linked to higher local home price levels and recent increases in development costs, while higher levels of replacement costs dampen construction activity. The average price elasticity of new single-family home permits is considerably less than one, supporting recently published estimates based on national time-series data.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Lerbs, 2012. "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p258, European Regional Science Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa12p258
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    Cited by:

    1. Gnagey, Matthew, 2012. "Heterogeneous Developers, Spatial Interactions, and Land Development Outcomes under Uncertainty," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124932, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Martin Micheli & Jan Rouwendal & Jasper Dekkers, 2019. "Border Effects in House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 757-783, September.
    3. Martin Micheli & Jan Rouwendal & Jasper Dekkers, 2014. "Border Eff ects in House Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 0511, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    4. Kajuth, Florian, 2021. "Land leverage and the housing market: Evidence from Germany1," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Seidel, Tobias & Wickerath, Jan, 2020. "Rush hours and urbanization," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Printzis, Panagiotis, 2020. "What is the investment loss due to uncertainty?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    7. Hiller, Norbert & Lerbs, Oliver W., 2016. "Aging and urban house prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 276-291.
    8. Lerbs, Oliver & Hiller, Norbert, 2015. "Aging and Urban House Prices," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113136, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dirk Drechsel & Stefan Neuwirth, 2016. "Taming volatile high frequency data with long lag structure: An optimal filtering approach for forecasting," KOF Working papers 16-407, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    11. Kajuth, Florian, 2020. "The German housing market cycle: Answers to FAQs," Discussion Papers 20/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    JEL classification:

    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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