IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jns/jbstat/v245y2025i6p623-641n1001.html

Unintended Consequences of the 2015 Refugee Surge on Residential Building Permits in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Neukranz Nils

    (38922 EBS University of Business and Law , Wiesbaden, Germany)

  • Zietz Joachim

    (38922 EBS University of Business and Law , Wiesbaden, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine how building permit rates, in particular those for housing in one- and two-family homes, were affected by the presence of refugees in the wake of the 2015/16 refugee surge in Germany. Our panel data set covers all German counties with available data over the years 2011–2019. Our results show that a larger presence of refugees tended to lower the building permit rate, not in the very short run but over time. The effect is concentrated in the years 2017–2019 at the end of our sample. On average over those years, a doubling of the population’s refugee share induced a decline in the permit rate by 7 %–9 %. This suggests a lower future housing supply as a potential unintended consequence of the refugee surge.

Suggested Citation

  • Neukranz Nils & Zietz Joachim, 2025. "Unintended Consequences of the 2015 Refugee Surge on Residential Building Permits in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 245(6), pages 623-641.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:245:y:2025:i:6:p:623-641:n:1001
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2023-0062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/jbnst-2023-0062
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/jbnst-2023-0062?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
    2. Jeanty, P. Wilner & Partridge, Mark & Irwin, Elena, 2010. "Estimation of a spatial simultaneous equation model of population migration and housing price dynamics," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 343-352, September.
    3. Mussa, Abeba & Nwaogu, Uwaoma G. & Pozo, Susan, 2017. "Immigration and housing: A spatial econometric analysis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 13-25.
    4. Dehos, Fabian T., 2021. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Entorf, Horst & Lange, Martin, 2023. "Refugees welcome? Understanding the regional heterogeneity of anti-refugee hate crime," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    6. Saiz, Albert, 2007. "Immigration and housing rents in American cities," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 345-371, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xin DONG & Weihua ZHOU, 2016. "Housing Affordability and Permanent Migration Intention of Rural-Urban Migrants," Chinese Journal of Urban and Environmental Studies (CJUES), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(02), pages 1-12, June.
    2. Mangum, Kyle & Molloy, Raven, 2021. "Migration and Housing special issue: Introduction from Editors Kyle Mangum and Raven Molloy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    3. Bill Cochrane & Jacques Poot, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on Local Housing Markets," Working Papers in Economics 19/07, University of Waikato.
    4. Lange, Martin & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2024. "Do refugees impact crime? Causal evidence from large-scale refugee immigration to Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    5. Larkin, Matthew P. & Askarov, Zohid & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Dubelaar, Chris & Klona, Maria & Newton, Joshua & Stanley, T.D. & Vocino, Andrea, 2019. "Do house prices ride the wave of immigration?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    6. Xiaoping Zhou & Zhenyang Qin & Yingjie Zhang & Linyi Zhao & Yan Song, 2019. "Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Anette Haas & Liv Osland, 2014. "Commuting, Migration, Housing and Labour Markets: Complex Interactions," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 51(3), pages 463-476, February.
    8. Yongheng Deng & Maggie R. Hu & Adrian D. Lee, 2021. "Melting pot or salad bowl: Cultural distance and housing investments," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(S1), pages 235-267, March.
    9. Aydemir, Abdurrahman B. & Öztek, Abdullah Selim, 2025. "The Impact of Refugees on Crime: Evidence from Syrian Influx in Türkiye by Nativity of Perpetrators and Victims," IZA Discussion Papers 17885, IZA Network @ LISER.
    10. Grossmann, Volker & Schäfer, Andreas & Steger, Thomas & Fuchs, Benjamin, 2017. "Reversal of migration flows: A fresh look at the German reunification," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-15.
    11. Depetris-Chauvin, Emilio & Santos, Rafael J., 2018. "Unexpected guests: The impact of internal displacement inflows on rental prices in Colombian host cities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 289-309.
    12. Luik, Marc-André & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich & Voss, Simon, 2025. "Language proficiency and homeownership: Evidence from U.S. immigrants," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Yingchao Lin & Zhili Ma & Ke Zhao & Weiyan Hu & Jing Wei, 2018. "The Impact of Population Migration on Urban Housing Prices: Evidence from China’s Major Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-14, September.
    14. Huang, Xinhui & Li, Wei & Xu, Luqi, 2025. "Rhetoric vs. Reality: Unauthorized immigration and housing rents," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    15. Kathleen Kürschner & Michael Kvasnicka, 2018. "The 2015 European Refugee Crisis and Residential Housing Rents in Germany," ERES eres2018_156, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    16. Adam A Tyrcha, 2019. "Why does the queue keep growing? The relationship between migration and rental housing queues in Sweden," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(2), pages 1251-1258.
    17. Xinrui Wang & Eddie Chi-Man Hui & Jiuxia Sun, 2018. "Population Aging, Mobility, and Real Estate Price: Evidence from Cities in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    18. Adam Alexander Tyrcha, 2020. "The Impact of Migration on a Regulated Rental Market," REGION, European Regional Science Association, vol. 7, pages 35-48.
    19. Fremerey, Melinda & Hörnig, Lukas & Schaffner, Sandra, 2024. "Becoming neighbors with refugees and voting for the far-right? The impact of refugee inflows at the small-scale level," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    20. Mazzotta, Stefano, 2024. "Immigration Narrative and Home Prices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:245:y:2025:i:6:p:623-641:n:1001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.