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Unintended Consequences of the 2015 Refugee Surge on Residential Building Permits in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Neukranz Nils

    (38922 EBS University of Business and Law , Wiesbaden, Germany)

  • Zietz Joachim

    (38922 EBS University of Business and Law , Wiesbaden, Germany)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine how building permit rates, in particular those for housing in one- and two-family homes, were affected by the presence of refugees in the wake of the 2015/16 refugee surge in Germany. Our panel data set covers all German counties with available data over the years 2011–2019. Our results show that a larger presence of refugees tended to lower the building permit rate, not in the very short run but over time. The effect is concentrated in the years 2017–2019 at the end of our sample. On average over those years, a doubling of the population’s refugee share induced a decline in the permit rate by 7 %–9 %. This suggests a lower future housing supply as a potential unintended consequence of the refugee surge.

Suggested Citation

  • Neukranz Nils & Zietz Joachim, 2025. "Unintended Consequences of the 2015 Refugee Surge on Residential Building Permits in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 245(6), pages 623-641.
    • Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:245:y:2025:i:6:p:623-641:n:1001
    DOI: 10.1515/jbnst-2023-0062
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy

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