Taming volatile high frequency data with long lag structure: An optimal filtering approach for forecasting
We propose a Bayesian optimal filtering setup for improving out-of-sample forecasting performance when using volatile high frequency data with long lag structure for forecasting low-frequency data. We test this setup by using real-time Swiss construction investment and construction permit data. We compare our approach to different filtering techniques and show that our proposed filter outperforms various commonly used filtering techniques in terms of extracting the more relevant signal of the indicator series for forecasting.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2016|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich|
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
- Rodriguez, Abel & Puggioni, Gavino, 2010. "Mixed frequency models: Bayesian approaches to estimation and prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 293-311, April.
- Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006.
"Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," NBER Working Papers 10914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "Predicting Volatility: Getting the Most out of Return Data Sampled at Different Frequencies," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-19, CIRANO.
- Robert Ingenito & Bharat Trehan, 1996. "Using monthly data to predict quarterly output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
- Oliver W. Lerbs, 2014. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 183-210, September.
- Oliver Wolfgang Lerbs, 2012. "House prices, housing development costs, and the supply of new single-family housing in German counties and cities," ERES eres2012_261, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
- Oliver Lerbs, 2012. "House Prices, Housing Development Costs, and the Supply of New Single-Family Housing in German Counties and Cities," ERSA conference papers ersa12p258, European Regional Science Association.
- Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9mf223rs, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
- Eric Ghysels & Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-20, CIRANO.
- Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
- Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2011. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,35, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Foroni, Claudia & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2012. "U-MIDAS: MIDAS regressions with unrestricted lag polynomials," CEPR Discussion Papers 8828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- McDonald, John F. & McMillen, Daniel P., 2000. "Residential Building Permits in Urban Counties: 1990-1997," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 175-186, September.
- C. Tsuriel Somerville, 2001. "Permits, Starts, and Completions: Structural Relationships Versus Real Options," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 161-190.
- Clements, Michael P & GalvÃ£o, Ana Beatriz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting With Mixed-Frequency Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 546-554. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:16-407. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.