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Using monthly data to predict quarterly output

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  • Robert Ingenito
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Ingenito & Bharat Trehan, 1996. "Using monthly data to predict quarterly output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfer:y:1996:p:3-11:n:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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