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Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models

Author

Listed:
  • Anirvan Banerji

    (Economic Cycle Research Institute)

  • Pami Dua

    (Delhi School of Economics)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Nevada and University of Connecticut)

Abstract

Dua and Miller (1996) created leading and coincident employment indexes for the state of Connecticut, following Moore's (1981) work at the national level. The performance of the Dua-Miller indexes following the recession of the early 1990s fell short of expectations. This paper performs two tasks. First, it describes the process of revising the Connecticut Coincident and Leading Employment Indexes. Second, it analyzes the statistical properties and performance of the new indexes by comparing the lead profiles of the new and old indexes as well as their out-of-sample forecasting performance, using the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) method. The new indexes show improved performance in dating employment cycle chronologies. The lead profile test demonstrates that superiority in a rigorous, non-parametric statistic fashion. The mixed evidence on the BVAR forecasting experiments illustrates the truth in the Granger and Newbold (1986) caution that leading indexes properly predict cycle turning points and do not necessarily provide accurate forecasts except at turning points, a view that our results support.

Suggested Citation

  • Anirvan Banerji & Pami Dua & Stephen M. Miller, 2002. "Performance Evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index Using Lead Profiles and BVAR Models," Working papers 2002-34, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2002-34
    Note: Funding for Banerji.s participation came from the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, the Connecticut Department of Labor, and the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rangan Gupta, 2006. "FORECASTING THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY WITH VARs AND VECMs," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(4), pages 611-628, December.
    2. Edda Claus, 2011. "Seven Leading Indexes of New Zealand Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 76-89, March.
    3. Hong Chen, 2010. "Using Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators to Forecast Sales of Large Development and Construction Firms," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 310-331, April.
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    5. Rangan Gupta & Moses M. Sichei, 2006. "A Bvar Model For The South African Economy," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 74(3), pages 391-409, September.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen Miller, 2013. "Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 387-417, April.
    7. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2010. "Predicting Downturns in the US Housing Market: A Bayesian Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 294-319, October.
    8. Rangan Gupta, 2009. "Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting Inventory Investment," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(1), pages 113-126, March.
    9. Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain, 2009. "Could we have predicted the recent downturn in the South African housing market?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 325-335, December.
    10. Shihai Dong & Yandong Wang & Yanyan Gu & Shiwei Shao & Hui Liu & Shanmei Wu & Mengmeng Li, 2020. "Predicting the turning points of housing prices by combining the financial model with genetic algorithm," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, April.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Sonali Das, 2008. "Spatial Bayesian Methods Of Forecasting House Prices In Six Metropolitan Areas Of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 76(2), pages 298-313, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; leading and coincident employment indexex; turning points;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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