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"Ripple Effects" and Forecasting Home Prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix

  • Rangan Gupta

    (University of Pretoria)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

We examine the time-series relationship between housing prices in Los Angeles, Las Vegas, and Phoenix. First, temporal Granger causality tests reveal that Los Angeles housing prices cause housing prices in Las Vegas (directly) and Phoenix (indirectly). In addition, Las Vegas housing prices cause housing prices in Phoenix. Los Angeles housing prices prove exogenous in a temporal sense and Phoenix housing prices do not cause prices in the other two markets. Second, we calculate out-of-sample forecasts in each market, using various vector autoregessive (VAR) and vector error-correction (VEC) models, as well as Bayesian, spatial, and causality versions of these models with various priors. Different specifications provide superior forecasts in the different cities. Finally, we consider the ability of theses time-series models to provide accurate out-of-sample predictions of turning points in housing prices that occurred in 2006:Q4. Recursive forecasts, where the sample is updated each quarter, provide reasonably good forecasts of turning points.

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Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2009-05.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision: Jun 2009
Publication status: Published in Annals of Regional Science, available on-line November 18, 2010
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2009-05
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Connecticut 365 Fairfield Way, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
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  17. Meen, Geoffrey P, 1990. "The Removal of Mortgage Market Constraints and the Implications for Econometric Modelling of UK House Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(1), pages 1-23, February.
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  19. Todd H. Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2009. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis Using Us State Level," Working Papers 09-04, Purdue University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics.
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