IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bes/jnlbes/v7y1989i3p379-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Leading Indicators for the Service Sector

Author

Listed:
  • Layton, Allan P
  • Moore, Geoffrey H

Abstract

Since the service sector currently accounts for a large and growing share of U.S. economic activity, we have undertaken to develop indicators that throw light on its current status and future prospects. A composite coincident index of aggregate economic activity in the service sector is constructed, and a growth-cycle chronology is identified based on growth rates in this index and in its components. Then several macroeconomic leading indicators of service are identified, and from them a composite leading index is constructed. The growth rate in this index is found to give advance warnings of major swings in the growth of the service sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-386, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:7:y:1989:i:3:p:379-86
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lahiri, Kajal & Yao, Vincent Wenxiong, 2006. "Economic indicators for the US transportation sector," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(10), pages 872-887, December.
    2. Valentina Aprigliano & Lorenzo Bencivelli, 2013. "Ita-coin: a new coincident indicator for the Italian economy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 935, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Liudmila Kitrar & Tamara Lipkind & Georgy Ostapkovich, 2020. "Information Content of Russian Services Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(1), pages 59-74, April.
    4. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Performance evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index using lead profiles and BVAR models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 415-437.
    5. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji, 2001. "A Leading Index for the Indian Economy," Working papers 90, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    6. Banerji, Anirvan & Hiris, Lorene, 2001. "A framework for measuring international business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 333-348.
    7. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.
    8. S. V. S. Dixit & Mr. Maxwell Opoku-Afari, 2012. "Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data," IMF Working Papers 2012/119, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    10. Kaiser, Ulrich & Voß, Katrin, 1999. "Do Business-related Services Really Lag Behind Manufacturing Industries in the Business Cycle? Empirical Evidence on the Lead/Lag Relationship Between Business-related Services and Manufacturing Indus," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-34, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "A dynamic factor model of the coincident indicators for the US transportation sector," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 595-600.
    12. Kajal Lahiri, Wenxiong Yao, and Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    13. Derek Yu & Adél Bosch, 2012. "Trends on the hours worked of the employed, 1997 - 2011," Working Papers 15/2012, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    14. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecast for the Services Sector in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(01), pages 31-39, January.
    15. Proietti, Tommaso, 2005. "New algorithms for dating the business cycle," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 477-498, April.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:7:y:1989:i:3:p:379-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.