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Do business-related services really lag behind manufacturing industries in the business cycle?

  • Kaiser, Ulrich
  • Voß, Katrin

In an a priori view, it is usually assumed that the business cycle of manufacturing industries leads the business cycle of the service sector. This seems to be even more plausible for the relationship between business-related services, whose high growth rates in recent years were largely due to increased outsourcing activities of the manufacturing sector. In this paper it is shown that the relationship is not as simple as it appears at first sight. We run Granger causality tests between sales growth rates of the business-related service sector against growth rates of various series of the manufacturing sector. It turns out that the relationship between business-related services and manufacturing is either contemporaneous or bi-directional, while no evidence is given for manufacturing leading business-related services.

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File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/24345/1/dp9934.pdf
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Paper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 99-34.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:5276
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  1. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  2. Klodt, Henning & Maurer, Rainer & Schimmelpfennig, Axel, 1997. "Tertiarisierung in der deutschen Wirtschaft," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 959, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  3. Ulrich Kaiser & Herbert S. Buscher, 1999. "The Service Sentiment Indicator - A Business Climate Indicator for the German Business - Related Services Sector," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  4. Krämer, Hagen, 1999. "Dienstleistungen: Motor für Wachstum und Beschäftigung in Deutschland?," Violette Reihe Arbeitspapiere 5/1999, Promotionsschwerpunkt "Globalisierung und Beschaeftigung".
  5. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
  6. Morrison, Catherine J, 1986. "Structural Models of Dynamic Factor Demands with Nonstatic Expectations: An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Expectations Specifications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(2), pages 365-86, June.
  7. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-86, July.
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