IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/soueco/v17y2016i1p114-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Shafiullah
  • Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam

Abstract

The export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis suggests that there is a strong positive linear relationship between a country’s exports and economic growth. For many years, theoretical and empirical studies have examined the causal relationship between exports and economic growth and found that this relationship is one of interdependence rather than of unilateral causation. The purpose of this article is to empirically re-examine the ELG hypothesis in the context of two small South Asian countries: Bangladesh for the period of 1980–2011 and Sri Lanka for the period of 1984–2011. Using a model that controls for a host of domestic and international factors, this article tests the ELG hypothesis by employing the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test for cointegration and the Granger causality tests. The empirical results confirm the validity of the ELG hypothesis for both Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Shafiullah & Ravinthirakumaran Navaratnam, 2016. "Do Bangladesh and Sri Lanka Enjoy Export-Led Growth? A Comparison of Two Small South Asian Economies," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(1), pages 114-132, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:17:y:2016:i:1:p:114-132
    DOI: 10.1177/1391561415621825
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1391561415621825
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1391561415621825?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Oxenham, . "Skills and Literacy Training for Better Livelihoods : A Review of Approaches and Experiences," World Bank Other Operational Studies, The World Bank, number 9767.
    2. Xiaolan Fu, 2005. "Exports, technical progress and productivity growth in a transition economy: a non-parametric approach for China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(7), pages 725-739.
    3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    4. Balasubramanyam, V N & Salisu, M & Sapsford, David, 1996. "Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in EP and IS Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(434), pages 92-105, January.
    5. Dunham, David & Kelegam, Saman, 1997. "Does leadership matter in the economic reform process? Liberalization and governance in Sri Lanka, 1989-1993," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 179-190, February.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Jang Jin & Eden Yu, 1996. "Export-led growth and the US economy: another look," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(5), pages 341-344.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Md. Zulquar Nain & Wasim Ahmad, 2010. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis in India: Some Further Evidences," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 69-82, August.
    10. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    11. Kelegama, Saman & Foley, Fritz, 1999. "Impediments to Promoting Backward Linkages from the Garment Industry in Sri Lanka," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1445-1460, August.
    12. Dierk HERZER & Felicitas NOWAK‐LEHMANN D. & Boriss SILIVERSTOVS, 2006. "Export‐Led Growth In Chile: Assessing The Role Of Export Composition In Productivity Growth," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 306-328, September.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon & Lai, Yew Wah, 2011. "The Stability of Export-led Growth Hypothesis: Evidence from Asia's Four Little Dragons," MPRA Paper 27962, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Tuck Cheong Tang & Mahendhiran Nair, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: reassessment from the bounds test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 293-296.
    15. Arvind Panagariya, 2003. "South Asia: Does Preferential Trade Liberalisation Make Sense?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(9), pages 1279-1291, September.
    16. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    17. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Remittances, Growth and Convergence: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 39002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    19. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    20. Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2003. "Foreign trade regimes and the FDI-Growth Nexus: a case study of Thailand," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 55-69.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    22. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2002. "Demand for M3 and expenditure components in Malaysia: assessment from bounds testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 721-725.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biswajit Maitra & Moutushi Chakraborty, 2021. "International trade, human capital and economic growth in Sri Lanka," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 405-426, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vinish Kathuria, 2019. "Growth and Investment: Testing for the Relationship for South Asian Countries," Millennial Asia, , vol. 10(3), pages 337-371, December.
    2. Bibhuti Sarker & Farid Khan, 2020. "Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: an augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Shankaran Nambiar & Arunnan Balasubramaniam, 2016. "Does ASEAN–India Trade Stimulate Income? A Cointegration Analysis Using the ARDL Approach," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 295-314, September.
    4. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Jemaa, Mohamed Mekki Ben, 2015. "On the causal nexus of road transport CO2 emissions and macroeconomic variables in Tunisia: Evidence from combined cointegration tests," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 89-100.
    5. Mishra Bibhuti Ranjan & Mohanty Asit, 2017. "An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Jayaraman, T.K. & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2009. "Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2182-2189, June.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2014. "Environmental Kuznets curve in an open economy: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Tunisia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 325-336.
    8. Tauã Vital & Daniel Morais De Souza & Jessica Faciroli, 2020. "Unemployment, poverty and police performance: an ARDL analysis of crime in São Paulo," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 128-139.
    9. Kaminski, Jermain & Hopp, Christian & Tykvová, Tereza, 2019. "New technology assessment in entrepreneurial financing – Does crowdfunding predict venture capital investments?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 287-302.
    10. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Jaidi, Zied, 2014. "Some new evidence on the determinants of money demand in developing countries – A case study of Tunisia," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 30-45.
    11. Siong Hook Law, 2008. "Does a Country's Openness to Trade and Capital Accounts Lead to Financial Development? Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 161-177, June.
    12. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries: An empirical view from expenditure components," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
    13. Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Tanzania: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 617-622, February.
    14. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2012. "Does Portuguese economy support crude oil conservation hypothesis?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 628-634.
    15. Zhang, Yu & Zhang, Sufang, 2018. "The impacts of GDP, trade structure, exchange rate and FDI inflows on China's carbon emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 347-353.
    16. Sahoo, Manoranjan & Babu, M. Suresh & Dash, Umakant, 2016. "Long run sustainability of current account balance of China and India: New evidence from combined cointegration test," MPRA Paper 79013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    17. Ozturk, Ilhan & Acaravci, Ali, 2010. "The causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP in Albania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania: Evidence from ARDL bound testing approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(6), pages 1938-1943, June.
    18. Ahmed, Khalid, 2015. "The sheer scale of China’s urban renewal and CO2 emissions: Multiple structural breaks, long-run relationship and short-run dynamics," MPRA Paper 71035, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Dergiades, Theologos & Tsoulfidis, Lefteris, 2008. "Estimating residential demand for electricity in the United States, 1965-2006," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2722-2730, September.
    20. Nicholas Odhiambo, 2014. "Energy Dependence in Developing Countries: Does the Level of Income Matter?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 65-77, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export-led growth; Bangladesh; Sri Lanka; ARDL bounds test; Granger causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:soueco:v:17:y:2016:i:1:p:114-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.ips.lk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.