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Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data

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  • S. V. S. Dixit
  • Mr. Maxwell Opoku-Afari

Abstract

This paper uses a set of routinely collected high-frequency data in low-income countries (LICs) to construct an aggregate and a comprehensive index of economic activity which could serve (i) as a measure of the direction of economic activity; and (ii) as a useful input in analyzing contemporaneous real sector performance in LICs in the absence of high-frequency, and often outdated, GDP data. It could also serve as a useful tool for policymakers to gauge short-term dynamics of economic activity and shape appropriate and timely policy responses.

Suggested Citation

  • S. V. S. Dixit & Mr. Maxwell Opoku-Afari, 2012. "Tracking Short-Term Dynamics of Economic Activity in Low-Income Countries in the Absence of High-Frequency Gdp Data," IMF Working Papers 2012/119, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2012/119
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Wesley C. Mitchell & Arthur F. Burns, 1961. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 162-183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Layton, Allan P & Moore, Geoffrey H, 1989. "Leading Indicators for the Service Sector," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 379-386, July.
    5. Milton Friedman, 1962. "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie62-1, July.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Gian Paolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2001. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 259-289, May.
    8. Wesley Clair Mitchell & Arthur F. Burns, 1938. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc38-1, July.
    9. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "A Model to Estimate the Composite Index of Economic Activity in Romania – IEF-RO," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 5(2), pages 44-50, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kronick, Jeremy, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks from the EU and US: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 59416, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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