Forecasting Economic Cycle with a Structural Equation Model: Evidence from Thailand
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Sethapramote, Yuthana, 2015. "Synchronization of business cycles and economic policy linkages in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 126-136.
- Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.),Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Ronny Nilsson, 2006. "Composite Leading Indicators and Growth Cycles in Major OECD Non-Member Economies and recently new OECD Members Countries," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2006/5, OECD Publishing.
- Sarstedt, Marko & Ringle, Christian M. & Smith, Donna & Reams, Russell & Hair, Joseph F., 2014. "Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM): A useful tool for family business researchers," Journal of Family Business Strategy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 105-115.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003.
"How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
- Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 2003/027, International Monetary Fund.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Nathan McLellan, 2003.
"The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability,"
Treasury Working Paper Series
03/09, New Zealand Treasury.
- Nathan McLellan & Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 594, Econometric Society.
- Cantor, Richard & Mark, Nelson C, 1988. "The International Transmission of Real Business Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 29(3), pages 493-507, August.
- James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Marco E. Terrones, 2003.
"How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 57-62, May.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Terrones, Marco E., 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IZA Discussion Papers 702, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Marco Terrones, 2003. "How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?," IMF Working Papers 03/27, International Monetary Fund.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matějů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2013.
"Leading indicators of crisis incidence: Evidence from developed countries,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 1-19.
- Babecký, Jan & Havránek, Tomáš & Matĕjů, Jakub & Rusnák, Marek & Šmídková, Kateřina & Vašíček, Bořek, 2012. "Leading indicators of crisis incidence: evidence from developed countries," Working Paper Series 1486, European Central Bank.
- Borio, Claudio, 2014.
"The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
- Claudio Borio, 2012. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," BIS Working Papers 395, Bank for International Settlements.
- Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.
- Ilse Mintz, 1969. "Dating Postwar Business Cycles: Methods and Their Application to Western Germany, 1950–67," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mint69-1, June.
- Moses Tule & Taiwo Ajilore & Godday Ebuh, 2016. "A composite index of leading indicators of unemployment in Nigeria," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 87-105, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989.
"New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators,"
NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Sami Ben Jabeur & Asma Sghaier, 2018. "The relationship between energy, pollution, economic growth and corruption: A Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1927-1946.
- Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia, 2018. "The financial cycle and recession risk," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2018. "Why you should use the Hodrick-Prescott filter - at least to generate credit gaps," BIS Working Papers 744, Bank for International Settlements.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Monika Gupta & Shubhi Bansal, 2020. "Covid-19 Disruption of Middle-Class Monthly Household Income and Budget," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 10-17.
More about this item
Keywords
PLS-SEM; leading indicator; economic cycle; forecasting;JEL classification:
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2020-03-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.