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Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread

Author

Listed:
  • Claudio Borio
  • Mathias Drehmann
  • Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora

Abstract

Financial cycles can be important drivers of real activity, but there is scant evidence about how well they signal recession risks. We run a horse race between the term spread - the most widely used indicator in the literature - and a range of financial cycle measures. Unlike most papers, ours assesses forecasting performance not just for the United States but also for a panel of advanced and emerging market economies. We find that financial cycle measures have significant forecasting power both in and out of sample, even for a three-year horizon. Moreover, they outperform the term spread in nearly all specifications. These results are robust to different recession specifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:818
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    3. Fernando Garcia Alvarado, 2022. "Detecting crisis vulnerability using yield spread interconnectedness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3864-3880, October.
    4. Ojo, Marianne, 2024. "Addressing current inflation levels through green energy technologies and techniques: recent developments," MPRA Paper 120514, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    6. Tran, Thuy Nhung, 2022. "The Volatility of the Stock Market and Financial Cycle: GARCH Family Models," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 151-168.
    7. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Weltkonjunktur im Winter 2019 - Weltkonjunktur bleibt vorerst ohne Schwung [World Economy Winter 2019 - Global growth remains sluggish for the time being]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    9. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana & Elisa Ossola, 2023. "Green risk in Europe," Working Papers 526, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics.
    10. Shengnan Lv & Zeshui Xu & Xuecheng Fan & Yong Qin & Marinko Skare, 2023. "The mean reversion/persistence of financial cycles: Empirical evidence for 24 countries worldwide," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 18(1), pages 11-47, March.
    11. Ojo, Marianne, 2024. "Inflationary impacts since the Global Pandemic Crisis: the potential of forecasting techniques and technologies," MPRA Paper 120515, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. M S, Navaneeth, 2021. "Business Cycles, Inflation and Unemployment: An MMT perspective," MPRA Paper 115352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Ojo, Marianne & Roedl, Marianne, 2020. "Uncertain accommodative policies as tools for financial stability: recent developments," MPRA Paper 102231, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial cycle; term spread; recession risk; panel probit mode;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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