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Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten

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  • Hauber, Philipp

Abstract

Die US-Wirtschaft befindet sich im längsten Aufschwung der jüngeren Geschichte: Laut Klassifizierung des National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) dauert die derzeitige Expansionsphase im Dezember 2019 bereits 125 Monate und übertrifft damit den Aufschwung der 1990er Jahre um fünf Monate. Nach dem kräftigen Produktionsanstieg um 2,9 Prozent im Jahr 2018 hat die Konjunktur im Verlauf dieses Jahres allerdings an Fahrt verloren. Insbesondere die Investitionstätigkeit verlangsamte sich spürbar. Gleichzeitig veränderte sich die Zinsdifferenz zwischen lang- und kurzfristigen Wertpapieren so, dass zur Jahresmitte die Rendite von Dreimonatsanleihen höher war als jene für zehnjährige Staatsanleihen. Eine solche Inversion der Zinsstrukturkurve gilt als verlässlicher Indikator für eine Rezession innerhalb der nächsten zwei bis sechs Quartale.

Suggested Citation

  • Hauber, Philipp, 2019. "Zur Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession in den Vereinigten Staaten," Kiel Insight 2019.14, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwbox:201914
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann & Dora Xia Author-X-Name_First: Dora, 2019. "Predicting recessions: financial cycle versus term spread," BIS Working Papers 818, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Eo, Yunjong & Kang, Kyu Ho, 2020. "The effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on forecasting the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    3. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    4. Michael D. Bauer & Thomas M. Mertens, 2018. "Information in the Yield Curve about Future Recessions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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    1. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Kooths, Stefan & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2020. "Weltkonjunktur im Frühjahr 2020 - Weltwirtschaft im Stresstest [World Economy Spring 2020 - World economy under strain]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 63, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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