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The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability

  • Nathan McLellan
  • Robert A Buckle
  • Kunhong Kim

This paper uses the open economy structural VAR model developed in Buckle, Kim, Kirkham, McLellan and Sharma (2002) to evaluate the impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability and the output/inflation variability trade-off. The model includes a forward-looking Taylor Rule to identify monetary policy and the impact of monetary policy is evaluated by deriving a monetary policy index using a procedure suggested by Dungey and Pagan (2000). Monetary policy has generally been counter-cyclical, thereby reducing business cycles and inflation variability. Exceptions are in 1994 and 1995 when monetary policy accentuated the business cycle upswing and in 1998 when monetary policy accentuated the recession, although its impact in 1998 was small relative to the impact of adverse climatic conditions. During the initial years of inflation targeting monetary policy tended to simultaneously reduce inflation and output variability. From 1996 to 2001 monetary policy was less effective in reducing inflation and output variability. This latter period included a brief experiment with a Monetary Conditions Index, the Asian crisis and a large adverse domestic climate sho

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Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings with number 594.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:594
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  1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1984. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Working Papers 1392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Amano, Robert & Coletti, Don & Macklem, Tiff, 1999. "Monetary Rules When Economic Behaviour Changes," Working Papers 99-8, Bank of Canada.
  6. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1, June.
  7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
  8. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
  9. Iris Claus & Christie Smith, 1999. "Financial intermediation and the monetary transmission mechanism," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, December.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "The science of monetary policy: A new Keynesian perspective," Economics Working Papers 356, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 1999.
  11. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  12. Paul Conway, 1998. "Macroeconomic variability in New Zealand: An SVAR study," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 161-186.
  13. Hans-Jurgen Engelbrecht & Robin Loomes, 2002. "The unintended consequences of using an MCI as an operational monetary policy target in New Zealand: Suggestive evidence from rolling regressions," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 217-233.
  14. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer, 1988. "The New Keynsesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Trade-off," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 1-82.
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