IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

VARMA models for Malaysian Monetary Policy Analysis

  • Mala Raghavan


  • George Athanasopoulos


  • Param Silvapulle


This paper establishes vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models for Malaysian monetary policy analysis by efficiently identifying and simultaneously estimating the model parameters using full information maximum likelihood. The monetary literature is largely dominated by vector autoregressive (VAR) and structural vector autoregressive (SVAR).models, and to the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to use VARMA modelling to investigate monetary policy. Malaysia is an interesting small open economy to study because of the capital control measures imposed by the government following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. A comparison of the impulse responses generated by these three models for the pre- and post-crisis periods indicates that the VARMA model impulse responses are consistent with prior expectations based on economic theories and policies pursued by the Malaysian government, particularly in the post-crisis period. Furthermore, uncovering the way in which various intermediate channels work would help Bank Negara Malaysia to steer the economy in the right direction so that monetary policy can still remain an effective policy measure in achieving sustainable economic growth and price stability.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 6/09.

in new window

Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-6
Contact details of provider: Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Phone: +61 3 99052489
Fax: +61 3 99055474
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
  3. Ramana Ramaswamy & Torsten Sløk, 1997. "The Real Effects of Monetary Policy in the European Union: What Are the Differences?," IMF Working Papers 97/160, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Athanasopoulos, George & Vahid, Farshid, 2008. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 237-252, April.
  5. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
  6. George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "A Complete VARMA Modelling Methodology Based on Scalar Components," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  7. Umezaki, So, 2006. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis," IDE Discussion Papers 79, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
  8. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  9. Robert Dekle & Mahmood Pradhan, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Money Demand in Asean Countries: Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 97/36, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
  11. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  12. Wallis, Kenneth F, 1977. "Multiple Time Series Analysis and the Final Form of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1481-97, September.
  13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Mark W. Watson, 1986. "Are Business Cycles All Alike?," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 123-180 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2005. "Exchange and interest rate channels during a deflationary era - Evidence from Japan, Hong Kong and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 17/2005, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  15. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  17. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
  18. Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  19. Sukudhew Singh & Ahmad Razi & Norhana Endut & Helmi Ramlee, 2008. "Impact of financial market developments on the monetary transmission mechanism," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial market developments and their implications for monetary policy, volume 39, pages 49-99 Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Domac, Ilker, 1999. "The distributional consequences of monetary policy : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2170, The World Bank.
  21. Robert Neil McCauley, 2006. "Understanding monetary policy in Malaysia and Thailand: objectives, instruments and independence," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in Asia: approaches and implementation, volume 31, pages 172-198 Bank for International Settlements.
  22. Maravall, Agustin, 1993. "Stochastic linear trends : Models and estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 5-37, March.
  23. Dungey, Mardi & Pagan, Adrian, 2000. "A Structural VAR Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(235), pages 321-42, December.
  24. Robert J. Corker & Wanda Tseng, 1991. "Financial Liberalization, Money Demand, and Monetary Policy in Asian Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 84, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Mansor H. Ibrahim, 2005. "Sectoral Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Malaysia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 83-102, 03.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:msh:ebswps:2009-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dr Xibin Zhang)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.