IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v27y2010i1p468-476.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)

Author

Listed:
  • Ftiti, Zied

Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology to check the economic performance of a monetary policy and in particular the inflation targeting policy (ITP). The main idea of this work is to consider the ITP as economically efficient when it generates a stable monetary environment. The latter is considered as stable when a long-run equilibrium exists to which the paths of economic variables (inflation rate, interest rate and GDP growth) converge. The convergence of the variables' paths implies that these variables are more predictable and implies a less uncertainty in the economic environment. To measure the degree of convergence between economic variables, we propose, in this paper, a dynamic time-varying variable presented in the frequency approach named cohesion. This variable is estimated from the evolutionary co-spectral theory as defined by Priestley and Tong (1973) and Priestley (1969, 1981, [Priestley, 1988] and [Priestley, 1996]). We apply this theory to the measure of cohesion presented by Croux et al. (2001) to obtain a dynamic time-varying measure. In the last step of the study, we apply the Bai and Perron test (1998, 2003a,b) to determine the change in the cohesion path. The results show that the implementation of the ITP generates a high degree of convergence between economic series that implies less uncertainty into the monetary environment. We conclude that the inflation targeting generates a stable monetary environment. This result allows us to conclude that the ITP is relevant in the case of industrialized countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:1:p:468-476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264-9993(09)00187-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mollick, André Varella & Cabral, René & Carneiro, Francisco G., 2011. "Does inflation targeting matter for output growth? Evidence from industrial and emerging economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 537-551, July.
    2. Milton Friedman, 1959. "The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results," NBER Chapters,in: The Demand for Money: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results, pages 1-29 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters,in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-282 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    5. Ismail Genc & Minsoo Lee & Candelaria Rodriguez & Zachary Lutz, 2007. "Time Series Analysis of Inflation Targeting in Selected Countries," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 15-27.
    6. Ho, Wai-Ming, 1996. "Imperfect Information, Money, and Economic Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(4), pages 578-603, November.
    7. Charles Bean, 2004. "Inflation Targeting: The UK Experience," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 5(4), pages 405-421, November.
    8. Robert A Buckle & Kunhong Kim & Nathan McLellan, 2003. "The impact of monetary policy on New Zealand business cycles and inflation variability," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/09, New Zealand Treasury.
    9. Robert King & Alexander L. Wolman, 1999. "What Should the Monetary Authority Do When Prices Are Sticky?," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 349-404 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110.
    11. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert King, 1997. "The New Neoclassical Synthesis and the Role of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 231-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P, 1993. "Policy Uncertainty, Persistence and Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(2), pages 145-163, June.
    13. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 355-385.
    14. Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005. "Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.
    15. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2010. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables: a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, pages 1054-1070.
    16. Michael D. Bordo & Angela Redish, 2005. "Seventy Years of Central Banking: The Bank of Canada in International Context, 1935-2005," NBER Working Papers 11586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1993. "Macroeconomic Policies, Growth, and Welfare in a Stochastic Economy," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 34(4), pages 953-981, November.
    18. Martin, Philippe & Ann Rogers, Carol, 2000. "Long-term growth and short-term economic instability," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 359-381, February.
    19. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    20. repec:dgr:rugccs:199902 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. King, Robert G. & Wolman, Alexander L., 2013. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-574.
    22. Robert Lensink & Hong Bo & Elmer Sterken, 1999. "Does uncertainty affect economic growth? An empirical analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), pages 379-396.
    23. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-236, May.
    24. Dodge, David, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Canada: Experience and lessons," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 113-124, August.
    25. Essahbi Essaadi & Zied Ftiti, 2008. "The inflation Targeting effect on the inflation series: ANew Analysis Approach of evolutionary spectral analysis," Post-Print halshs-00355637, HAL.
    26. Jim Lee, 1999. "Inflation Targeting In Practice: Further Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 17(3), pages 332-347, July.
    27. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    28. Kormendi, Roger C. & Meguire, Philip G., 1985. "Macroeconomic determinants of growth: Cross-country evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 141-163, September.
    29. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, June.
    30. Blanca Sanchez-Robles, 1998. "Macroeconomic stability and economic growth: the case of Spain," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(9), pages 587-591.
    31. Honda, Yuzo, 2000. "Some tests on the effects of inflation targeting in New Zealand, Canada, and the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 1-6, January.
    32. Elbadawi, Ibrahim & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1998. "Macroeconomic Policies, Instability and Growth in the World," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 7(0), pages 116-168, December.
    33. Kneller, Richard & Young, Garry, 2001. "Business Cycle Volatility, Uncertainty and Long-Run Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 69(5), pages 534-552, Special I.
    34. Ahamada, Ibrahim, 2002. "Tests for covariance stationarity and white noise, with an application to Euro/US dollar exchange rate: An approach based on the evolutionary spectral density," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 177-186, October.
    35. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    36. Christophe Croux & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2001. "A Measure Of Comovement For Economic Variables: Theory And Empirics," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 232-241, May.
    37. Andrew T. Levin & Fabio M. Natalucci & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 51-80.
    38. repec:dgr:rugsom:99e23 is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Artis, Michael J & Bladen-Hovell, Robin & Nachane, Dilip M, 1992. "Instability of the Velocity of Money: A New Approach Based on the Evolutionary Spectrum," CEPR Discussion Papers 735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis V.S. Wavelet Analysis," Working Papers 2014-577, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    2. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, pages 1820-1829.
    3. repec:psc:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:3:p:201-241 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-421 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Amél Belanès & Khaled Guesmi, 2015. "Tests of Financial Market Contagion: Evolutionary Cospectral Analysis Versus Wavelet Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 575-611, December.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:384-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kablan, Sandrine & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2017. "Commodity price cycles and financial pressures in African commodities exporters," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 215-231.
    8. Creti, Anna & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 245-258.
    9. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Almeida, André Filipe Guedes, 2016. "Compromisso fiscal, expectativas empresariais e produção industrial: o caso brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 70(2), July.
    10. Bouoiyour, jamal & Selmi, Refk, 2014. "Exchange Rate Impact on Russia’s Exports: Some Evidence from an Evolutionary Co-spectral Analysis," MPRA Paper 59368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Oil price impact on financial markets:," Working Papers 2014-435, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    12. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-68, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    13. Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes, 2016. "Oil price and stock market co-movement: What can we learn from time-scale approaches?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 266-280.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:27:y:2010:i:1:p:468-476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.