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Economic policies, macroeconomic environment and entrepreneurs' expectations: Evidence from Brazil

Author

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  • Gabriel Caldas Montes
  • Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic variables and economic policies on expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs. It provides an econometric analysis of the expectation transmission channel under inflation targeting in Brazil, emphasizing the effect of inflation targeting credibility on the business confidence of industrial entrepreneurs. Design/methodology/approach - Based on ordinary least square (OLS), generalized method of moments (GMM) and vector autoregression (VAR), the paper provides empirical evidence about the influence of inflation targeting credibility and macroeconomic policies on expectations and confidence of entrepreneurs and, as a consequence, on industrial production. Findings - The evidence for the Brazilian economy suggest that monetary and fiscal policies as well as the credibility of the monetary regime affect economic activity by their impact on expectations of entrepreneurs. Research limitations/implication - Development of macroeconomic stability is important to the expectations formed by entrepreneurs and, therefore, for industrial production. In particular, inflation targeting credibility stimulates industrial production, since it increases the confidence of entrepreneurs about the functioning of the economy and their businesses. Originality/value - The results suggest new insights about the influence of economic policies on the real side of the economy, pointing out that the conduct of economic policies in emerging countries with inflation targets are likely to affect the expectations of entrepreneurs and therefore their production decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Caldas Montes & Júlio Cesar Albuquerque Bastos, 2013. "Economic policies, macroeconomic environment and entrepreneurs' expectations: Evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 40(3), pages 334-354, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:v:40:y:2013:i:3:p:334-354
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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Caldas Montes & André Almeida, 2017. "Corruption and business confidence: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2692-2702.
    2. André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
    3. Helder Ferreira Mendonça & André Filipe Guedes Almeida, 2019. "Importance of credibility for business confidence: evidence from an emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1979-1996, December.
    4. Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Comunicação Do Banco Central,Expectativas De Inflação E Profecia Auto-Realizável: Evidências Para Obrasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    5. Bruno Pires Tiberto & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "A Importância Da Administração Da Dívida Pública Para A Construção Da Reputação Fiscal E Redução Do Risco-País: Evidências Empíricas Para O Brasil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42nd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 025, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Almeida, André Filipe Guedes, 2016. "Compromisso fiscal, expectativas empresariais e produção industrial: o caso brasileiro," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 70(2), July.
    7. Thiago Cacicedo Cidad & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "Does Central Bank’S Perception Regarding The State Of The Economy Affect Entrepreneurs’ Expectations? Are Entrepreneurs’ Expectations Important For Investment? Empirical Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

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